Viktor Orban: is time up for Europe's longest-serving premier?

Viktor Orban's 15-year hold on Hungary could finally be coming to an end as he deals with allegations of widespread corruption, a cost-of-living crisis and resurgent opposition.

During his time in power, Hungary's prime minister and his ruling Fidesz Party have transformed the country into a self-declared "illiberal state". Driven by a conservative nationalist agenda he has changed the voting system, stacked the judiciary, taken control of the media, attacked migrants and waged a war on "woke". He has become the model for other would-be authoritarian strongmen leaders around the world, including Donald Trump.

Now Europe's longest-serving premier is "facing the toughest political challenge to his rule", said Bloomberg.

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What did the commentators say?

"Orban's power is indeed now under threat, but not in the way – or from the people – one might expect," said BBC Budapest correspondent Nick Thorpe.

Peter Magyar is a former Fidesz insider who emerged as a surprise challenger in early 2024 after he spoke out against a child sexual abuse cover-up that led to the resignation of the Fidesz president.

Since then, the 44-year-old conservative has toured the country calling out rampant nepotism and corruption, while highlighting the perilous state of the economy and declining public services.

The key, said law professor Maciej Kisilowski in The Japan Times, is that although "Magyar broke with Orban's authoritarian 'mafia state', he did not abandon many of the conservative values that Orban represents".

Boosted by his savvy, and at times irreverent, use of social media, he represents an emerging "far right-lite" in Europe, more in the mould of Italy's Giorgia Meloni. "Its exponents may try to minimise the most harmful geopolitical, economic and environmental effects of populist policies while still credibly responding to the deeply entrenched nativist and anti-intellectual sentiments of today's conservative voters."

This strategy appears to be paying dividends. Recent polling has Magyar's Tisza Party surging to a massive 15-point lead over Fidesz, said Bloomberg, up from a nine-point lead in March.

At the same time, Orban's plan to stifle dissent ahead of next year's elections have suffered a series of setbacks. Voting on a bill to extend the country's restrictive "foreign agent" laws aimed at silencing the remaining independent media and civil society groups has been postponed, while this year's Budapest Pride saw up to 200,000 people take to the streets in defiance of a government ban.

His "formula of bashing gays, migrants and the European Union seems to have stopped working", said The Economist, for the time being at least.

What next?

Orban is still expected to seek a fifth term in parliamentary elections due to be held in April 2026.

But for the first time he has broached the topic of succession, which has until now been "largely taboo within Fidesz circles", said Bloomberg.

"When the time comes, we'll manage", he told pro-government newspaper Magyar Nemzet on Monday, adding that the notion only he could lead Fidesz is a "myth".

"Should he lose, the ideological dynamic of the Orbán network, created to maintain him, may paradoxically have its greatest influence after he has gone," said The Observer.

If Marine Le Pen wins in France, Nigel Farage becomes UK PM and JD Vance takes over from Trump and "all of a sudden you find yourself being governed according to new rules, at least you'll know where they came from".