Republicans on track to win 230 House seats, CBS model predicts
Republicans are on track to win a clear majority of 230 seats in the House of Representatives this November, according to the CBS News Battleground Tracker model released Sunday.
The Battleground Tracker takes "a district-by-district approach to analyzing races and measuring public opinion, since control of Congress is won across hundreds of individual elections, not by national popular vote," CBS explains.
Some Democrats have expressed hope that the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade (1973) and ending the constitutional right to an abortion could steal some of the GOP's momentum, but it seems as though high inflation and the normal rhythm of election cycles are handicaps too large for Democrats to overcome.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The predicted net gain of 19 seats for Republicans is far higher than the 7 additional seats the GOP needs to secure a majority. Democrats — who currently hold 220 seats — can only afford a net loss of two.
The model has an error margin of 12 seats, meaning that Republicans are projected to win between 218 and 242 seats. Even on the low end of that range, Republicans would still emerge from the midterms with control of the House.
This range tracks with the 235 seats Democrats won in the 2018 midterms and falls short, even on the high end, of the massive red wave of 2014, when Republicans won 247 seats.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Grayson Quay was the weekend editor at TheWeek.com. His writing has also been published in National Review, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Modern Age, The American Conservative, The Spectator World, and other outlets. Grayson earned his M.A. from Georgetown University in 2019.
-
'Democrats now have a chance to present a vigorous, compelling case'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
What has Kamala Harris done as vice president?
In Depth It's not uncommon for the second-in-command to struggle to prove themselves in a role largely defined by behind-the-scenes work
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
How Black organizations quickly pivoted and mobilized for Kamala Harris
In the spotlight Harris has a shot at being the first Black woman to lead the Democratic ticket
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Menendez convicted of bribery, fraud, and extortion
Speed Read The New Jersey Democratic Senator was found guilty in a federal corruption trial
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Florida judge dismisses Trump documents case
Speed Read Judge Aileen Cannon ruled that special counsel Jack Smith was improperly appointed
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Hamas says military chief survived Israeli strike
Speed Read An Israeli bombing failed to hit its intended target, military commander Mohammed Deif, but killed at least 90 Palestinians
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
First Israeli report on Oct. 7 finds 'severe mistakes and errors' in IDF response
Speed Reads Israeli military admits failures in response to deadly Hamas attack that triggered Gaza war
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Biden saw neurologist during physicals
Speed Read Following his bad debate performance, many are asking questions about the president's brain
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Russia bombs Kyiv children's hospital
Speed Reads The daytime barrage interrupted heart surgeries and killed at least 40 people
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published