Republicans on track to win 230 House seats, CBS model predicts
Republicans are on track to win a clear majority of 230 seats in the House of Representatives this November, according to the CBS News Battleground Tracker model released Sunday.
The Battleground Tracker takes "a district-by-district approach to analyzing races and measuring public opinion, since control of Congress is won across hundreds of individual elections, not by national popular vote," CBS explains.
Some Democrats have expressed hope that the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade (1973) and ending the constitutional right to an abortion could steal some of the GOP's momentum, but it seems as though high inflation and the normal rhythm of election cycles are handicaps too large for Democrats to overcome.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The predicted net gain of 19 seats for Republicans is far higher than the 7 additional seats the GOP needs to secure a majority. Democrats — who currently hold 220 seats — can only afford a net loss of two.
The model has an error margin of 12 seats, meaning that Republicans are projected to win between 218 and 242 seats. Even on the low end of that range, Republicans would still emerge from the midterms with control of the House.
This range tracks with the 235 seats Democrats won in the 2018 midterms and falls short, even on the high end, of the massive red wave of 2014, when Republicans won 247 seats.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Grayson Quay was the weekend editor at TheWeek.com. His writing has also been published in National Review, the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Modern Age, The American Conservative, The Spectator World, and other outlets. Grayson earned his M.A. from Georgetown University in 2019.
-
4 ways to give back this holiday season
The Explainer If your budget is feeling squeezed, remember that money is not the only way you can be generous around the holidays
By Becca Stanek, The Week US Published
-
4 tips for hosting an ecofriendly Thanksgiving
The Week Recommends Coming together for the holidays typically produces a ton of waste, but with proper preparation, you can have an environmentally friendly gathering.
By Theara Coleman, The Week US Published
-
Jussie Smollet conviction overturned on appeal
Speed Read The Illinois Supreme Court overturned the actor's conviction on charges of staging a racist and homophobic attack against himself in 2019
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Global court issues arrest warrant for Netanyahu
Speed Read The International Criminal Court issued warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who stand accused of war crimes
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Gaetz bows out, Trump pivots to Pam Bondi
Speed Read Gaetz withdrew from attorney generation consideration, making way for longtime Trump loyalist Pam Bondi
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
GOP's Mace seeks federal anti-trans bathroom ban
Speed Read Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina has introduced legislation to ban transgender people from using federal facilities
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Ukraine fires ATACMS, Russia ups hybrid war
Speed Read Ukraine shot U.S.-provided long-range missiles and Russia threatened retaliation
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
New York DA floats 4-year Trump sentencing freeze
Speed Read President-elect Donald Trump's sentencing is on hold, and his lawyers are pushing to dismiss the case while he's in office
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Wyoming judge strikes down abortion, pill bans
Speed Read The judge said the laws — one of which was a first-in-the-nation prohibition on the use of medication to end pregnancy — violated the state's constitution
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
US sanctions Israeli West Bank settler group
Speed Read The Biden administration has imposed sanctions on Amana, Israel's largest settlement development organization
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Gaetz ethics report in limbo as sex allegations emerge
Speed Read A lawyer representing two women alleges that Matt Gaetz paid them for sex, and one witnessed him having sex with minor
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published