Gold Cup 2015 betting tips: an intelligent punter's guide

(Image credit: 2014 Getty Images)

last updated 13 March 2015

The Cheltenham National Hunt Festival reaches its conclusion today, but with three days down and one more to go, there are still plenty of opportunities to win - and lose - money. But if we bear in mind three key factors before placing our bets, we can help tilt the percentages in our favour.

One, previous festival form: In 2013, 33 per cent of the races were won by horses that had won at a previous festival. True, the figure dropped to 15 per cent last year, but the repeat winners included the 20-1 Gold Cup hero Lord Windermere, and Holywell, a 10-1 winner of the staying handicap chase on the opening day.

Two, trainers’ records at the meeting: While smaller yards can still get winners at the festival, a few select trainers have tended to dominate in recent years. The so-called Big Three - Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson - have together trained 83 winners at Cheltenham since 2003, with Mullins registering a total of nine wins in the last two years. This year, the Irish maestro has assembled what looks like his strongest team ever, so it’s no surprise to see him odds-on to be top trainer for the third year running.

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Three, those ‘spring horses’: Some horses just come in to their own at this time of year. Lord Windermere, last year’s 20-1 Gold Cup winner for instance, has now won in this corresponding week for the last three years - including twice at the festival - while Holywell, also entered in this year’s Gold Cup, is another whose best form tends to come when the worst of the winter weather is over.

The Blue Riband of jump racing and this year’s race looks particularly intriguing. The favourite is Silviniaco Conti, but while he’s the top horse on the ratings he has been beaten twice in the race before and since 1988 only three horses have won a Gold Cup having been beaten in a previous running. Although it's a hard race to win in successive years - only Best Mate has achieved that since the early 1970s - don't rule out another big run from last year's winner Lord Windermere, who comes to his own at this time of year, while Holywell is another who makes each-way appeal based on his excellent festival record. The Giant Bolster could also represent some value at 33-1 considering he’s been fourth, second and third in the last three renewals.

Since 2004 there’s only been one winner above 10-1 in the betting and six of the winners since then have been priced between 5-1 and 13-2. Outright favourites don’t have an imperious record though, with only one win since 2002. The best trials for this are the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown - which has provided the last three winners - and the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle at Kempton. Petite Parisienne and Beltor won those races this year, and have to be short-listed.

The last race of the festival has been renamed ‘The A P McCoy Grand Annual’ this year, to mark the retiring jockey’s final appearance at the prestigious meeting. McCoy has the choice of quite a few mounts in the race, and whatever he decides to ride looks likely to start off favourite for what could be an emotional end to the festival. Stats-wise, lowly weighted novices tend to do well in this: just two winners since 2004 have carried more than 11st to victory.

There won’t be a dry eye in the house if Hurricane Fly - winner in 2011 and 2013 - can land his third success at the age of 11, but he’ll be without his regular pilot, Ruby Walsh, who has opted to ride the favourite Faugheen. Willie Mullins’s seven-year-old, unbeaten in his eight races to date, is the likeliest winner, but last year’s winner Jezki can’t be discounted, and The New One, unlucky in running in 2014, is another who should be in the mix.

Last year’s 33-1 winner Western Warhorse was a real trend-buster as this usually goes to a well-fancied runner. The favourite though was only beaten by a head, so it’s probably wisest to regard last year as an aberration and again concentrate on the market leaders. Odds-on favourite is the Willie Mullins-trained Un De Sceaux, and while he is the likeliest winner, some each-way value could be provided by Josses Hill, who comes from a stable which has landed this twice in the last three years and five times overall.

This two-mile race could be a classic. Last year’s winner Sire De Grugy faces the returning 2013 champ Sprinter Sacre, who missed last year’s festival due to injury. If trainer Nicky Henderson has got Sprinter Sacre back to something very close to his best, he would have to be favoured, given his better form at Cheltenham. However, this is not just a two-horse race: Champagne Fever looks a good each-way alternative, bearing in mind that he’s recorded two wins and a head second in previous festival appearances.

This is the championship race today. Paul Nicholls, who won this four times with the now-retired Big Buck’s, has a strong hand and saddles two of the market leaders: Zarkandar, a previous festival winner, and Saphir Du Rheu, a course and distance winner. At Fishers Cross, who ran really well to come third last year, is available at around 33-1, and although he hasn’t been in great form he could be over-priced considering his Cheltenham form figures of 11123.

Nine of the last ten winners have been 6-1 or shorter in the betting, so concentrate on the market leaders, and particularly those with winning form at Cheltenham as nine of the last ten winners had already won at least once at the track. Hidden Cyclone, placed in both previous starts at Cheltenham, including when second in this last year, and Johns Spirit, a three-times Cheltenham winner, are each-way possibles.

In the last seven years we’ve had winners at 66-1, 33-1, 25-1 and 50-1, so don’t be put off if the horse you fancy is not among the market leaders. Weight is quite an important factor as seven of the last eight winners have carried less than 11st. Trainer Venetia Williams has won this three times in the last eight years, and twice with rank outsiders, so small each-way investments on her runners might be a shrewd policy.

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is a writer, broadcaster and blogger who writes The Weekâ€™s Intelligent Punterâ€™s Guides. He is co-founder of the Campaign For Public Ownership. He tweets on sport @MightyMagyar and on politics and other subjects @NeilClark66