Tory leadership candidates on the single market

In a little more than two months' time, the Conservative Party will have a new leader and the country a new prime minister.

So far, we know that none of the main candidates support holding an early general election and that they will "respect" the outcome of the EU referendum, despite calls for a second vote.

Later today, we'll also discover which one of them won't be getting the job, after the first ballot of Conservative MPs.

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But what do we know about their post-Brexit economic plans – and especially their thoughts on the single market, which is seen by so many experts as the critical issue?

Theresa May

Pitch and chances of success: Continuity candidate and safe pair of hands who is the longest serving post-war home secretary. She's odds-on favourite with the bookies, at 2/5.

Single market access: Businesses will cheer her comments that it will be a "priority to allow British companies to trade with the single market in goods and services". However, she has also said there will be no deal "that involves accepting the free movement of people as it has worked hitherto".

That leaves the door open for a compromise arrangement, perhaps involving an "emergency break" on free movement or limiting this only to those with a firm job offer. It remains to be seen if this would be palatable to the remaining EU members.

Andrea Leadsom

Pitch and chances of success: Appealing to the disenfranchised with a "one nation", populist-tinged offer including cutting excessive executive pay. Surprise contender and second favourite, at 11/4.

Single market access: Leadsom aims to secure the position as the main Brexit candidate and has struck a much stronger note on free movement, saying it "will end and the British parliament will decide how many people enter our country each year".

This is pretty incompatible with the four freedoms of the single market, which Leadsom has not even mentioned, so it's likely access would be off the table if she won. Instead, the former banker wants "new trade deals with the fastest growing parts of the world".

Michael Gove

Pitch and chances of success: The "change" candidate, playing on his record in government as a radical reformer. Turning on fellow Brexit leader Boris Johnson has hurt his chances, however, and seen his odds slip to 18/1.

Single market access: In a similar manner to his Vote Leave colleague Leadsom, Gove has set out a strong line on the single market that effectively rules access out. He promises to "end free movement [and] introduce an Australian-style points-based system for immigration".

Stephen Crabb

Pitch and chances of success: As the youngest of the bunch, Crabb represents the modernising wing of the Tories and has set his tent very much in the centre ground. An outsider, at 50/1.

Single market access: Crabb was a fairly enthusiastic Remain supporter so it's no surprise he has the most pro-single market stance. He says it is "vital" for the UK to retain "as close an economic relationship with the EU as we have now".

There's still the thorny issue of free movement to deal with, but while Crabb's language sounds strong – immigration is a "red line", he says – it's worth noting he has only discussed "controlling" it. This leaves the door open to a compromise, if the EU leaders are willing.

Liam Fox

Pitch and chances of success: As the most right-wing candidate, Fox will appeal to more socially conservative members. He's the rank outsider, at 150/1, and is expected to be eliminated today.

Single market access: He is actually the only one of the candidates to mention the single market – and only then to set himself against it, saying he does not "believe there is room for membership of the single market, if it entails free movement of people".

So Fox would only consider free movement if there was a complete release from this obligation by the EU, which is extremely unlikely.