Will a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan be a safe haven for terrorism?
One of the main objections to America's withdrawal from Afghanistan is that it will make Americans less safe — that terrorist groups will find safe haven from which to spring new attacks on U.S. soil. Didn't we invade Afghanistan in the first place in order to end the threat from al Qaeda, after all?
"There's no question that the return of the Taliban opens up space in this new Islamic emirate for al Qaeda to return, rebuild a base, and for other groups associated or previously associated with al Qaeda, like ISIS, to return to the region," Jamil Jaffer, executive director of the National Security Institute at George Mason University, told The Hill last week.
But there are a couple of reasons to think these fears are overblown.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The first is that an American military presence doesn't always discourage or stop terrorism — it can generate it. The U.S. invasion of Iraq helped birth ISIS, for example, both by destabilizing the country and by radicalizing the population against foreign occupiers. And the man behind 9/11, Osama bin Laden, was motivated to wage war against the United States in part because American troops remained in Saudi Arabia after the first Gulf War against Iraq in 1991. A smaller American footprint abroad might actually make our country a smaller target.
It's also the case that 9/11 was an act of stateless terrorism. Al Qaeda may have made its base in Afghanistan, but the hijackers were from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, and Egypt. Some of them plotted the attack in Hamburg, Germany, then sought flight training at schools in Florida and Arizona. The ubiquity of technology means that potential terrorists can and do become radicalized via email and social media from anywhere on the planet. That's a problem, but it means that planting an army in Kabul with the intent of holding it forever is an expensive and probably ineffective way to stop terrorism.
None of this is to say America will be free from terrorism going forward, or that the Taliban's quick victory won't have ugly consequences. But it does mean that the downsides of leaving Afghanistan aren't quite so clear as the hawks would have it.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Joel Mathis is a writer with 30 years of newspaper and online journalism experience. His work also regularly appears in National Geographic and The Kansas City Star. His awards include best online commentary at the Online News Association and (twice) at the City and Regional Magazine Association.
-
The best non-alcoholic fizz for Christmas
The Week Recommends Add some quality, booze-free sparkle to your festive drinks list
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK Published
-
Italy's prisons crisis
Under the Radar Severe overcrowding, dire conditions and appalling violence have brought the Italian carceral system to boiling point
By Rebecca Messina, The Week UK Published
-
The potential effects of Israel's ceasefire with Hezbollah
THE EXPLAINER With the possibility of a region-wide war fading, the Palestinian militant group Hamas faces increased isolation and limited options
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Who will win the coming US-China trade war?
Talking Points Trump's election makes a tariff battle likely
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
The political latitude of Musk's cost-cutting task force
Talking Points A $2 trillion goal. And big obstacles in the way.
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
The Pentagon faces an uncertain future with Trump
Talking Point The president-elect has nominated conservative commentator Pete Hegseth to lead the Defense Department
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
Should Sonia Sotomayor retire from the Supreme Court?
Talking Points Democrats worry about repeating the history of Ruth Bader Ginsburg
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
US election: who the billionaires are backing
The Explainer More have endorsed Kamala Harris than Donald Trump, but among the 'ultra-rich' the split is more even
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Donald Trump and the fascism debate
Talking Points Democrats sound the alarm, but Republicans say 'it's always the F-word'
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Would Trump really use the military against Americans?
Talking Points The former president says troops could be used against 'enemy within'
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published