8 must-watch House races in 2014

(Image credit: (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster))

last updated 8 January 2015

Democrats head into the 2014 midterms as clear underdogs when it comes to taking back the House of Representatives. The party needs a net increase of 17 seats to gain control, and that's a tall order this election cycle. Voters had blamed the Republicans for the disastrous 17-day government shutdown, but that was quickly overshadowed by the problems with the ObamaCare rollout. Furthermore, the president's sagging approval ratings will give GOP candidates an opportunity to link Democratic candidates to an increasingly unpopular White House.

Add the fact that the House's districts have been gerrymandered by state legislatures to favor the GOP, and you have a solid bulwark against Democratic attempts to win back the House.

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The context: Young died in October of 2013, leaving the seat open. The special election, which will be held March 11, is considered a bellwether for the midterms, because the district is up for grabs in a decidedly purple state. Young won re-election in 2012 with 58 percent of the vote, but President Obama also carried the district that same year. (Obama won it in 2008 as well.) This is one of the seats Democrats are going to have to pick up if they have any hope of gaining control of the House.

The context: This is a rematch between Barber, a former Gabby Giffords staffer, and McSally, who was the first female fighter pilot to fly in combat. Two years ago, in November 2012, Barber eked out the win against McSally by just 2,500 votes, so most people are expecting this race to be a close one, too. Barber won the seat in a special election in 2012 to replace Giffords, who retired after surviving a gunshot wound to the head during a constituent event in the district. Barber, who was also injured in the shooting, is a strong supporter of gun control, making him a target for conservative groups like Americans For Prosperity.

The context: This race is being billed as the toughest House contest of the 2014 midterms. Coffman won a third term by a mere two points in 2012, but President Obama carried the district with 52 percent of the vote that same year. The area is emblematic of the greater demographic shifts taking place across the country. Since 2009, the year Coffman took office, the district's share of Latino residents has increased from eight percent to 20 percent. The Democrats will slam Coffman for changing his position on immigration. In 2010, he called the DREAM Act a "nightmare." A year later, he introduced legislation to require ballots be written in English. More recently, however, he began advocating for comprehensive reform that includes citizenship for the children of undocumented immigrants. (Romanoff, who helped pass a law that required proof of residency for non-emergency aid, may have his own problems with Latino voters.) The National Republican Congressional Committee is pouring money into the race to help Coffman fend off the challenge, but the liberal-leaning House Majority PAC has zeroed in on the race to help flip the seat blue. The Democrats think they have a strong candidate in Romanoff, who is a household name across Colorado thanks to his time in the state House. Because the race is expected to be close, turnout will be key for this district, which encompasses Aurora, the Denver suburb made infamous by the movie theater shooting that killed twelve people in 2012.

The context: This race is all about the primary, which is scheduled for May 20. Party insiders are preparing for a grueling fight that will be a crucial test of whether establishment Republicans can fend off insurgent campaigns by Tea Party activists. (Even former presidential candidate Mitt Romney has waded into the race to back Simpson, an endorsement that could prove decisive as much of the district is Mormon.) Simpson is a close ally of House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), whose presence in the race will give the incumbent a financial boost, but may wind up hurting Simpson in the closed Republican primary where voters tend to be more conservative. Smith has the backing of the Club for Growth, an anti-tax group targeting Republicans who don't strictly hew to its vision of fiscal austerity. (Simpson voted for the bank bailout and to end the latest government shutdown.) A dentist by trade, Simpson is hoping his seniority in the House — and his high-ranking position on the Appropriations Committee — will appeal to voters. Smith's strategy is to paint the incumbent as a Washington insider with liberal leanings.

The money war: Simpson has received more than $1.25 million in donations while Smith has raised $525,000, which includes some of his own money. Boehner has contributed $5,000 to Simpson's campaign. The American Dental Association, the American Chemistry Council, the Chamber of Commerce, and Main Street Advocacy, a group that supports centrist Republicans, have vowed to support Simpson, though they haven't announced how much they will spend.

The fiercest ad: A radio ad released by the Smith campaign in September labeled Simpson a "liberal" and attacked the congressman's values. "He even opposes efforts to defund ObamaCare," the announcer says in the 60-second spot. "That’s right. He won’t join conservatives like Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, and our own Raul Labrador, Jim Risch, and Mike Crapo in opposing any government spending bill that funds ObamaCare."

The context: Heck was re-elected in 2012 by almost eight points even though President Obama won the district. Democrats still think this seat is a prime pickup opportunity thanks to shifting demographics. In the last two years, the Latino population has grown by five percent and the Asian population by more than 6 percent. There are now 10,000 more Democrats than Republicans in the district, which sits just south of Las Vegas. The congressman has a record that's hard to pigeonhole. He's voted dozens of times to repeal health care reform, but declined to support a budget that would assume ObamaCare was defunct. He voted to reauthorize the Violence Against Women Act, but then supported a measure that would ban abortions after 20 weeks. Bilbray-Kohn is a political legacy — her father was a Nevada congressman — and will focus her campaign on creating jobs and helping the middle class.

The context: Rahall is a top target for the National Republican Congressional Committee, which placed the 19-term lawmaker on its "Red Zone" list of vulnerable Democratic incumbents. Romney carried the district by more than 32 points two years ago, and the GOP thinks it has a competitive candidate to take on the incumbent. Jenkins, who was a Democrat until July, has some baggage of his own. His party switch has opened him up to charges of political opportunism and flip-flopping. A centrist Democrat, Rahall has opposed Obama's efforts to regulate the coal industry — including the president's cap-and-trade plan — but will have to distance himselffrom his party even further to survive this race.

The context: Eldridge has the star power, the friends with deep pockets (Project Runway's Tim Gunn has contributed to the campaign), and the support of Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), who will also be on the ballot next year. But the 27-year-old multimillionaire didn't purchase a home in the district until January of 2013, and it will be difficult for him to overcome charges of carpetbagging since he initially bought a house in another town where he was also considering running for Congress. Gibson, a decorated Army vet who served in the Gulf War, Kosovo, and Iraq, has deep ties to the community and lives near where he grew up. The congressman, who was named the most liberal Republican in the House by National Journal, was re-elected by a six-point margin in 2012 even though President Obama carried the area by six points as well.

The fiercest ad: Two months before Eldridge announced his candidacy, the National Republican Congressional Committee released an ad painting him as a carpetbagger. "On today's episode of the Lifestyles of the Rich and Out-of-Touch," the spot begins, "Sean Eldridge! $700 million. Multi-million dollar homes all over the state of New York." The advertisement, which also accuses Eldridge of schmoozing with political elites and Hollywood starlets, warns him that he can't buy his way into Congress.

The context: On one side we have Honda, a well-liked and grandfatherly figure, who has racked up endorsements from President Obama and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi. On the other side is 37-year-old Khanna, who has drawn support from many of Silicon Valley's heavy hitters, including Yahoo! CEO Melissa Mayer, and has several of the president's top campaign advisors on his staff. Both have raised massive amounts of money at this stage in the game, leading observers to predict an all-out Democratic civil war for this district. Making things more complicated is California's new "jungle primary" system in which all of the candidates compete against each other in the primary regardless of party. The top two will face each other in the November general election, and it's increasingly looking like Honda and Khanna are in for a bruising nine-month fight. The district, which is now the first Asian-American majority district in the continental United States, leans heavily Democratic.

Laura Colarusso is a freelance journalist based in Boston. She has previously written for Newsweek, The Boston Globe, the Washington Monthly and The Daily Beast.

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