Are both Democrats and Republicans alienating young voters?
The crucial millennial demographic could be up for grabs
Conventional wisdom assumes that Democrats — the party of gay marriage, higher education reform, and the environment — have a lock on young voters. But while the GOP has deeply serious obstacles to overcome if it wants to win younger voters, the millennial generation may be more up for grabs than many people think.
Let's start with the Republicans, whose problems with the younger generation stem from the party's far-right positions on social issues, poor branding, and a perpetual conservative echo chamber. Former President George H.W. Bush speechwriter Mary Kate Carey outlines the GOP's challenges:
Republicans are aware they have a big problem but are doing little to fix it. Among the many ignored bits of advice in the GOP's famous, costly March 2013 "autopsy" report was a call to make the Republican tent bigger and more appealing to young people.
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In June, the party received an even bigger warning when the College Republican National Committee issued a report telling the GOP it faced a "dismal" situation with young voters, due to perceptions that it was "closed-minded, racist, rigid," and "old-fashioned." It noted that Obama won 60 percent of the youth vote in 2012 and Ronald Reagan won 59 percent in 1984. And it didn't mince words:
But that report has been like a real autopsy: There has been absolutely no movement from the object of study. The party actually moved further right and requires those wanting a future in it to pass litmus tests. George P. Bush, Jeb Bush's 37-year-old son and nephew of former President George W. Bush, pointedly suggested to the AP that he's not like the other Bushes. The younger Bush, running for land commissioner of Texas, is taking care to align himself with the Tea Party.
All that leaves the lane wide open for Democrats, right? Not so fast. Democrats have their own super-size problem: A USA Today/Pew Research Center poll finds that Obama is losing the millennials, who voted for him by a two-to-one margin in his two presidential campaigns. The media narrative was that the Democrat Party was poised to capture an entire generation of voters because of its policies, more upbeat message, and more liberal stand on social issues. But that's not a certainty:
Many factors explain the drop: A rolling NSA spying scandal that has hurt Obama with his liberal base; the rocky rollout of Healthcare.gov, as well as an individual mandate that requires younger, healthier voters to buy insurance; a high unemployment rate that particularly affects younger workers; and growing income inequality.
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Indeed, earlier this month a poll by the Harvard University Institute of Politics found a majority of the millennials would favor getting Obama out of office.
To many young voters, Democrats talk the talk but aren't walking the walk. Republicans aren't even talking the talk, but the latest evidence suggests that the millennial generation remains open to being swayed.
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Joe Gandelman is a syndicated columnist for Cagle Cartoons and is the editor of The Moderate Voice blog.
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