Did Virginia Republicans just throw the 2013 governor's race?

The race for Virginia governor, one of the marquee contests of 2013, was already shaping up to be a contentious showdown between two fairly polarizing figures, Clinton acolyte Terry McAuliffe for the Democrats and Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli for the Republicans. Then, at a GOP nominating convention last weekend, "a small turnout of party die-hards picked a nominee for lieutenant governor who is nothing short of outrageous," says Jennifer Rubin at The Washington Post.

To make sure that Cuccinelli would prevail over more moderate challengers, the GOP agreed to hold a nominating convention instead of a primary. The move worked even before the several thousand Republicans gathered to vote last weekend — Cuccinelli's main GOP rival, Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling, dropped out of the race weeks ago — but "it might also sink his chance to win," says Rachel Weiner at The Washington Post. That's because the several thousand GOP activists also selected E.W. Jackson, a socially conservative black preacher, as Cuccinelli's running mate.

What's the problem with Jackson? In a nutshell, he's ultraconservative in a state that just voted for President Obama, says the Post's Rubin:

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The surprise election of Jackson has sent Republicans into a panic, says Beth Reinhard at National Journal. "Jackson's rhetoric puts Cuccinelli — whose own opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion has earned him a loyal conservative base of support — in a tough spot." Cuccinelli can't disown Jackson without alienating the GOP base, but he also can't embrace him lest Cuccinelli's own staunch socially conservative views come to dominate a campaign he's trying to make about the economy.

Still, "while Jackson's addition to the slate complicates Cuccinelli's campaign, it doesn't guarantee a tailspin," says Reinhard:

The state's GOP establishment also holds out hope that Cuccinelli will prevail because this is an off-year election, and "in off-year races, Virginia voters have a tendency to vote for the party that lost the last national election, a trend that's held since 1977," says the Post's Weiner. And then there's the fact that their opponent, McAuliffe, "has faced questions about his leadership of an electric car company and some unflattering quotes from his own memoir."

"We're in a deep [expletive]," a Virginia Republican strategist tells the Post. "The only good news is that the Democrats have Terry McAuliffe. It's the only thing keeping us glued to a chance of victory."

That smacks of wishful thinking, says Ross Kaminsky at The American Spectator. "Unless Jackson steps aside, it strikes me as likely that Virginia will face the depressing prospect of Gov. Terry McAuliffe." The big problem that Democrats will exploit is Jackson's "history of, shall we say, extremely un-PC remarks about homosexuality." In this country at this time, Kaminsky says, "connecting homosexuality to pedophilia is political suicide."

Virginia Republicans are right to be nervous about Jackson, says Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway. "Even if Cuccinelli manages to avoid Jackson being an albatross on his own campaign, his presence on the ticket could end up making it hard for a Gov. Cuccinelli to get his agenda through the state legislature."

If Cuccinelli wants to win, which means "keeping his losses down in Northern Virginia, he'll need to reject Jackson's views (e.g., No, I don't believe gays are perverts...) and quit campaigning with him as soon as feasible," says the Post's Rubin. This race isn't over, "but the Dems just caught a lucky break."