Would immigration reform be a win for the GOP?
The conventional wisdom is that reform defuses the issue — but it might not translate into more Latino support for Republicans
![U.S. Senator Marco Rubio was one of eight senators to unveil a bipartisan plan for immigration reform.](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/kKpD8GNMmGGURcyz3jAtkg-415-80.jpg)
A bipartisan group of senators on Monday released a preliminary outline of a comprehensive immigration reform package, raising hopes among reform advocates that Republicans and Democrats can reach a deal to provide the country's 11 million undocumented immigrants with a path to citizenship. While many details need to be worked out, the proposal already has the tentative support of President Obama. "The president welcomes the efforts by the bipartisan group in the Senate," said White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, who went on to praise the fact that it "mirrors" immigration proposals that Obama made on the campaign trail.
The compromise represents a dramatic about-face for the GOP, whose 2012 nominee for president, Mitt Romney, ran to the right of his primary opponents on immigration and advocated a law-and-order-style crackdown that would encourage the undocumented to "self-deport." Many influential members of the conservative media have dropped their hardline stances and expressed support for the plan, largely in response to a targeted public relations campaign spearheaded by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, a rising star in the Republican Party.
The conventional wisdom is that the GOP is willing to compromise on immigration reform in order to have some chance of winning Latino voters, 71 percent of whom voted for Obama in the last election. The idea is that by removing immigration as a wedge issue, the Republican Party can woo Latinos who may split with the Democratic mainstream on a host of other issues, from the size of government to abortion.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
![https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg](https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516-320-80.jpg)
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
But some conservatives argue that the GOP may be setting itself up for disappointment, since Latino voters also largely share the Democratic vision of a larger government. As David Frum at The Daily Beast writes:
The claim that Hispanic voters are "natural Republicans" is based on nothing but wishful thinking, fortified by ignorance.
Economically struggling Hispanics need and want more government than the GOP will offer them, and the 11 million illegals soon to embark on their "path to citizenship" will need and want even more: Earned Income Tax Credits, Medicaid, Section 8 housing, food stamps, and so on. [Daily Beast]
Indeed, Latinos have consistently supported the Democratic Party, a trend that suggests the GOP may need to do more than reform the immigration system. According to Jamelle Bouie at The Washington Post:
The problem for Rubio — and other pro-reform Republicans — is that Latinos need more than a softer line on immigration if they're going to support GOP candidates at any level of government. Latinos have been a reliable Democratic constituency for more than thirty years — Walter Mondale won 66 percent of Latinos, Michael Dukakis won 70 percent, and on average, Democratic presidential candidates finish with 63.5 percent support from Hispanic voters.
The reason is straightforward: Latinos are more liberal than the median voter. [Washington Post]
If that's the case, would Republicans be willing to moderate their positions on other issues? So far, despite much talk about reforming its image, the GOP appears to be taking a hard line on everything else, argues Jonathan Chait at New York:
Substantive compromise on taxes and spending is off the map of the entire intra-Republican debate. It is to do nothing at all. [Rep. Paul] Ryan argues that Republicans should simply endure the next four years and hope to win the next election cycle when they can implement their ideas. [New York]
Still, while the Republican Party may not solve all its problems with Latino voters in one fell swoop, it has to start somewhere.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
One last wrinkle: While momentum is on the side of reform, the possibility remains that more conservative members of the House will rebel against any reform package, which could mean double trouble for the GOP: No reform and a bitterly divided party to boot.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Ryu Spaeth is deputy editor at TheWeek.com. Follow him on Twitter.
-
The manosphere: the shady online network of masculinists
The Explainer A new police report said a rise in radicalised young men is contributing to an increase in violence against women and girls
By Richard Windsor, The Week UK Published
-
How can we fix tourism?
Today's Big Question Local protests over negative impact of ever-rising visitor numbers could change how we travel forever
By The Week UK Published
-
Simone Biles: Rising – an 'elegantly paced and vulnerable' portrait of the gymnast
The Week Recommends Netflix's four-part documentary is more than a 'riveting comeback story'
By Irenie Forshaw, The Week UK Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Supreme Court rejects challenge to CFPB
Speed Read The court rejected a conservative-backed challenge to the way the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published