What a fiscal cliff compromise might look like

Listening to the bluster coming from Republicans and Democrats alike, you'd think the two sides "could not be further apart on a year-end tax-and-spending deal" to avoid going over the fiscal cliff, say Jim Vandehei and Mike Allen at Politico. Publicly, Republicans insist they'll dig in to resist hiking tax rates to raise more revenue. Privately, however, they know full well "there is no chance taxes are not going up for people making north of $250,000." There's just no way to make a real dent in the deficit by closing loopholes, so rates for the wealthiest Americans will have to rise — "if not all the way to the Clinton-era 39.6 percent, then darn close." It's "simple math." But how do you get Republicans to swallow such a bitter pill? Democrats, despite all the "chest-pounding by liberals," are aware "they will ultimately cave and trim entitlements to get a deal done."

If this really is the way the deal shapes up — and it probably "isn't too far off the mark" — Democrats who feared their side would "cave" should be happy, says Ed Kilgore at Washington Monthly. They would get a lot of what they wanted: "A non-negotiable top marginal tax rate increase; some defense cuts in the 'spending cut' mix; and relatively slender 'entitlement reform' centered in Medicare with savings occurring ten years out or more." There are a lot of "ifs," though, and Boehner will have to squeeze out some more last-minute concessions to get the conservative base to go along. So we're probably in for "a lot more Kabuki" before "anything real happens."

"Both sides are still cowards when it comes to cutting and reforming entitlements, a critical element of any move back toward pre-Bush fiscal sanity," says Andrew Sullivan at The Daily Beast. "At some point, I think Obama needs to own the entitlement cuts — just as the GOP will have to own the tax increases." Obama has just been re-elected after promising "he would tackle the hard problems." It's up to him to get his own party to make painful compromises. The clock is ticking, and he can't "lead from behind."

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"If the American people had given Republicans the power to make major headway on the debt, the party would be obligated to try whatever that takes, the political consequences be damned," says Paul Mirengoff at Power Line. "But the electorate chose to give Republicans only a little power" in the November elections, so they have to be careful how they handle the fiscal cliff negotiations.