My election projection
Obama: 332 electoral votes
Based on the final round of polls, conversations with Republican and Democratic insiders, the calculations of all those statistical folks, and peer pressure, here is my 2012 United States presidential election projection.
President Obama: 332 electoral votes
That is, subtract North Carolina and Indiana from his 2008 accumulation. My outlier state is Florida. I think Obama will win Florida.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Mitt Romney: 206 electoral votes.
Popular vote estimation: Obama: 50.4 percent. Romney: 48.1 percent. Other: 1.6 percent.
How will we know if this scenario is likely?
If President Obama wins Virginia, something that the networks will probably be able to project around 8 pm ET, then ... well, it's probably going to be a long night for Governor Romney. Remember, polls in Florida's panhandle close at 8 pm ET. If Romney wins Virginia very narrowly, or if it's too close to call late into the evening, I think Obama ends up winning without Virginia (down to 319) and Florida (down to 290) and possibly Colorado (down to 281).
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Now, to the Senate races: I think Republicans pick up zero to one seats, perhaps grabbing Montana in addition to North Dakota (and losing Missouri and Indiana).
House races: I think Democrats might pick up a few seats, but just a few. Possible that Republicans could do the same. The split is probably +/- seven on either side.
Now:
If Romney runs the table on Obama, I think he'll take in excess of 52 percent of the popular vote, and will flip Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin for a total of 271 electoral votes. Throw in Ohio, and he's up to 289.
I think Republicans will pick up two seats in this scenario in the Senate, and add a few seats to their House total too.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Marc Ambinder is TheWeek.com's editor-at-large. He is the author, with D.B. Grady, of The Command and Deep State: Inside the Government Secrecy Industry. Marc is also a contributing editor for The Atlantic and GQ. Formerly, he served as White House correspondent for National Journal, chief political consultant for CBS News, and politics editor at The Atlantic. Marc is a 2001 graduate of Harvard. He is married to Michael Park, a corporate strategy consultant, and lives in Los Angeles.
-
Baltimore bridge disaster: Who is going to pay and how?
Today's Big Question Politicians, legal experts, and the insurance industry are all grappling with the financial fallout of America's worst infrastructure tragedy in years
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Melting polar ice is messing with global timekeeping
Speed Read Ice loss caused by climate change is slowing the Earth's rotation
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The Week contest: Stick guitar
Puzzles and Quizzes
By The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Xi-Biden meeting: what's in it for both leaders?
Today's Big Question Two superpowers seek to stabilise relations amid global turmoil but core issues of security, trade and Taiwan remain
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published