My election projection

Based on the final round of polls, conversations with Republican and Democratic insiders, the calculations of all those statistical folks, and peer pressure, here is my 2012 United States presidential election projection.

President Obama: 332 electoral votes

That is, subtract North Carolina and Indiana from his 2008 accumulation. My outlier state is Florida. I think Obama will win Florida.

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Mitt Romney: 206 electoral votes.

Popular vote estimation: Obama: 50.4 percent. Romney: 48.1 percent. Other: 1.6 percent.

How will we know if this scenario is likely?

If President Obama wins Virginia, something that the networks will probably be able to project around 8 pm ET, then ... well, it's probably going to be a long night for Governor Romney. Remember, polls in Florida's panhandle close at 8 pm ET. If Romney wins Virginia very narrowly, or if it's too close to call late into the evening, I think Obama ends up winning without Virginia (down to 319) and Florida (down to 290) and possibly Colorado (down to 281).

Now, to the Senate races: I think Republicans pick up zero to one seats, perhaps grabbing Montana in addition to North Dakota (and losing Missouri and Indiana).

House races: I think Democrats might pick up a few seats, but just a few. Possible that Republicans could do the same. The split is probably +/- seven on either side.

Now:

If Romney runs the table on Obama, I think he'll take in excess of 52 percent of the popular vote, and will flip Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin for a total of 271 electoral votes. Throw in Ohio, and he's up to 289.

I think Republicans will pick up two seats in this scenario in the Senate, and add a few seats to their House total too.