Editor's letter: The shifting polls
As Big Data gets bigger, we get better at analyzing and predicting the course of hurricanes and flu epidemics, but the course of human actions resists such forecasting.
We’ve heard an awful lot about shifting polls in the last week, as President Obama’s apparently rock-solid lead dissolved after a single debate with Mitt Romney. Whether you despair or rejoice at that outcome, it reveals a basic political reality that the fancy modern science of political campaigning might have obscured. All the careful formulations on health care, all the calibrated appeals to women and Hispanic voters, all those millions of dollars’ worth of television ads designed around granular research into the American voters’ fears and desires—none of it moved the needle as much as an old-fashioned mano a mano battle.
That may unsettle political quants who thought they had this election all figured out, but it won’t have come as a surprise to Nate Silver. The founder of the blog FiveThirtyEight.com predicted the 2008 election correctly in 49 states, and was subsequently hired by The New York Times. Yet in his fascinating new book, The Signal and the Noise (see Reviews: Books), he argues that human action has proven devilishly resistant to analysis, and thus to accurate prediction. As Big Data gets bigger, we get better at predicting the course of hurricanes and flu epidemics. Yet, as Silver says, “There is no reason to conclude that the affairs of men are becoming more predictable. The opposite may be true.” His account of the monumental failures to predict the financial crisis, for instance, shows how desperately we seek data that confirms our predilections—and how easy it is to find. That’s something to remember as we all assess the analyses and predictions of “experts” in this nail-biting campaign drama. The truth won’t come until Election Day.
James Graff
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
5 brain-busting cartoons about RFK Jr.
Cartoons Artists take on candidate suitability, the Kennedy family, and more
By The Week US Published
-
Right to roam: the battle to access England's green spaces
The Explainer A battle is being fought over access to England's green spaces
By The Week UK Published
-
Crossword: May 12, 2024
The Week's daily crossword
By The Week Staff Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Death of a dissident
Opinion How Navalny's fight against Putin will endure
By Susan Caskie Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published