Is President Obama heading for a landslide victory?
Obama is consistently and handily outpacing Romney in crucial battleground states, sparking talk of a possible blowout victory on Election Day. Too early to say?
Three new polls from The New York Times/CBS News/Quinnipiac University show President Obama with double-digit leads over his GOP rival Mitt Romney in Ohio and Pennsylvania, as well as a nine-point lead in Florida. Ohio and Florida are crucial states for both candidates, and many analysts say Romney simply cannot win without Ohio. What's more, Obama is leading slightly or holding up well in other swing states — such as Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada — giving the incumbent a decent shot of running the tables. Is Obama heading for a landslide?
A blowout victory is definitely possible: "There's no point putting it gently," says Nate Silver at The New York Times. "If the election were held today… it could look pretty ugly" for Romney. Obama is enjoying "euphoric" highs in swing-state polling, and he is favored in every state he won in 2008 except for Indiana and North Carolina, where Romney and Obama are tied. Obama does not yet have a "blue wall" of electoral votes that will guarantee victory, and there's still a chance that Romney could win. But it's just as probable that "things could get really out of hand, and that Mr. Obama could win in a borderline landslide."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
The race is going to tighten up: It's easy to "conclude that we could be witnessing an electoral blowout in the making," says Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post. But there are "plenty of reasons — historical and financial, mainly — to believe the most likely outcome is a narrowing of the race." Obama in 2008 enjoyed "one of the best Democratic years in modern presidential history," and "no one — not even the most loyal Obama allies — would argue that the political environment in 40 days will be anywhere close to as favorable." Furthermore, Romney and the GOP have $40 million more to spend than their Democratic counterparts, a "not-insignificant sum split over six weeks."
"Why Mitt Romney isn't going to get blown out"
Obama may have already hit his ceiling: Obama may be close to hitting the ceiling of his support, while "Romney still appears to have more growth potential," says Nate Cohn at The New Republic. The polls suggest that the "remaining undecided voters are probably latent Romney supporters — voters who tend to vote for Republican candidates, disapprove of the president's performance, but dislike Romney." Don't be surprised when "these voters eventually flock to Romney's side, perhaps as soon as after the first presidential debate."
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Do youth curfews work?
Today's big question Banning unaccompanied children from towns and cities is popular with some voters but it is contentious politically
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Sleaze baack!'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Quiz of The Week: 20 - 26 April
Puzzles and Quizzes Have you been paying attention to The Week's news?
By Rebecca Messina, The Week UK Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published
-
How would a second Trump presidency affect Britain?
Today's Big Question Re-election of Republican frontrunner could threaten UK security, warns former head of secret service
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
'Rwanda plan is less a deterrent and more a bluff'
Instant Opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By The Week UK Published
-
Henry Kissinger dies aged 100: a complicated legacy?
Talking Point Top US diplomat and Nobel Peace Prize winner remembered as both foreign policy genius and war criminal
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Last updated
-
Trump’s rhetoric: a shift to 'straight-up Nazi talk'
Why everyone's talking about Would-be president's sinister language is backed by an incendiary policy agenda, say commentators
By The Week UK Published
-
More covfefe: is the world ready for a second Donald Trump presidency?
Today's Big Question Republican's re-election would be a 'nightmare' scenario for Europe, Ukraine and the West
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published