Is Obama's post-convention bounce over?
The latest tracking polls show the presidential race tightening again, although some surveys actually show Obama ahead by several points. Something's up
President Obama surged in polls following the Democratic convention two weeks ago, but the nation's two longest-running tracking polls suggest the bump is gone. Gallup and Rasmussen Reports surveys suggest that, nationally, Obama and Mitt Romney are roughly back where they were before the two parties' conventions — essentially neck-and-neck. Still, there are several polls that show Obama has made gains in critical swing states and on nearly every issue. Has the president's bounce faded, or in the post-convention sprint toward election day, has he emerged as the race's solid favorite? Here, a closer look at what the numbers mean:
What do the polls say?
Gallup's latest tracking poll, released Wednesday, has Obama ahead by just one percentage point, with 47 percent to Romney's 46 percent. That's the same lead Obama had, according to Gallup, before the conventions, and it's down from a solid seven-point edge just six days earlier. Rasmussen shows Romney now ahead by two points. An Associated Press/GfK poll also gave Obama a narrow one-point lead, but other polls show him farther ahead: An NBC/Wall Street Journal survey of likely voters, released Tuesday, had Obama up by five percentage points, while a poll released Wednesday by the Pew Research Center gave Obama a commanding eight-percentage-point lead over Romney among likely voters.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Why the big differences?
All kinds of variables can skew polls one way or another. The sample of voters might include too many Democrats or Republicans, for example. Obama sometimes fares better among registered voters, while the race is tighter among "likely" voters. "Robopolls" might tilt toward one candidate, and those using live interviews the other. The big picture, however, reveals one variable that helps explain the polling disparities — cell phones. On average, says Nate Silver at The New York Times, the surveys that throw them into the mix give Obama a four-percentage-point lead. Those that rely solely on land lines — Rasmussen, for example — paint a rosier picture for Romney, with Obama ahead by just 1.5 points.
What makes cell phones so important?
A third of American households don't have a land line, and rely solely on cell phones, says Silver. Significantly, "potential voters who rely on cell phones belong to more Democratic-leaning demographic groups than those which don't" — younger voters, for example. Excluding these smartphone-toting voters "can bias the results against Democrats," even if, statistically, the demographic groups they belong to are adequately represented. It's unclear whether this is a reflection of the way these voters think, or simply the differences between the polls that include them and those that don't. "Robopolls," for example, didn't show a big convention bounce for Obama and, since federal law prohibits most automated calls to cell phones, they are more likely to use land lines only.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
So... has Obama's post-convention bounce faded, or not?
What matters is the trend, says Andrew Malcolm at Investor's Business Daily, so it's pretty clear that bounce is fading. So "forget the Republican doom and gloom drumbeat peddled" in media outlets that are cheerleading for Obama. The president's bounce nationwide does appear to be "eroding," says Jay Bookman at The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Still, the new picture looks bad for Romney. "In the swing states that he has to have — Ohio, Virginia, Florida — poll after poll shows his situation deteriorating significantly." With Obama cementing his swing-state edge, say Alexander Burns and Emily Schultheis at Politico, Romney needs a big shift in momentum, but things aren't going his way. If anything, says Russ Britt at MarketWatch, Romney's recent stumbles, including his insulting comments about the "47 percent" of Americans who don't pay federal income taxes, could give Obama a brand new bounce when the next round of polls comes out.
Sources: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Investor's Business Daily, MarketWatch, The New York Times (2,) Pew Research Center, Politico, The Washington Post
Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
-
Kate Winslet's eight-year battle to bring the life of Lee Miller to the big screen
The Blend Lee, based on the 1985 biography The Lives of Lee Miller, has been a long time in the making
By Olivia Cole Published
-
'Miracles in the mud'
Today's Newspapers A roundup of the headlines from the US front pages
By The Week Staff Published
-
Blow your mind with The Week Junior Big Book of Knowledge!
The Week Junior Packed to the brim with brain-expanding facts and mind-blowing information, this is the unmissable first book from The Week Junior and the perfect gift for curious kids.
By The Week Junior Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
1 of 6 'Trump Train' drivers liable in Biden bus blockade
Speed Read Only one of the accused was found liable in the case concerning the deliberate slowing of a 2020 Biden campaign bus
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
How could J.D. Vance impact the special relationship?
Today's Big Question Trump's hawkish pick for VP said UK is the first 'truly Islamist country' with a nuclear weapon
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Biden, Trump urge calm after assassination attempt
Speed Reads A 20-year-old gunman grazed Trump's ear and fatally shot a rally attendee on Saturday
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Supreme Court rejects challenge to CFPB
Speed Read The court rejected a conservative-backed challenge to the way the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is funded
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
Arizona court reinstates 1864 abortion ban
Speed Read The law makes all abortions illegal in the state except to save the mother's life
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Trump, billions richer, is selling Bibles
Speed Read The former president is hawking a $60 "God Bless the USA Bible"
By Peter Weber, The Week US Published
-
The debate about Biden's age and mental fitness
In Depth Some critics argue Biden is too old to run again. Does the argument have merit?
By Grayson Quay Published