President Obama's convention bounce: A mirage?
Polls suggest that the Democratic convention jumped Obama's poll numbers. But did it really improve his standing with the people who will actually cast votes?

A flurry of polls suggested that President Obama got a big boost from last week's Democratic convention, opening a wider lead over Mitt Romney. A new survey by The Washington Post and ABC News, however, suggests that the apparent bounce might not have changed the candidates' prospects in November as much as some analysts think. Obama surged to a 50 percent to 44 percent lead over Romney among poll respondents who were registered to vote. Among people who are actually likely to show up at the polls and vote, however, Obama had 49 percent and Romney 48 percent — leaving the race essentially in a dead heat, just as it was before the conventions. Did the conventions really change the outlook for the presidential race, or has Obama's bounce been over-hyped?
Obama's so-called bounce is meaningless: "Maybe this will stop the silly post-convention panic among Republicans," says Ed Morrissey at Hot Air. Election day is just 60 days out, so it's meaningless to look at what all registered voters think. Likely voters are the only ones who matter now, and they were clearly unswayed by Obama's sales pitch. If anything, Obama's low job approval, which didn't budge, and Romney's enduring lead among independents is "hardly cheery" news for Democrats.
"WaPo/ABC poll shows no change in race from before convention"
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
Sorry, GOP, Obama's bounce is quite real: What matters with polls is the trend, says Jamelle Bouie at The American Prospect. This one — like others from Gallup, Rasmussen, CNN, and Reuters — confirms that Obama's convention made him the favorite in this race. The Post and ABC didn't isolate likely voters before the conventions, but Obama made a four-point gain among registered voters. Obama "convinced a majority of the public to support him."
"The Obama bounce and what it means"
Dems should be happy — but not too happy: Dems have every right to "[walk] with a spring in their step," says Steve Benen at MSNBC. Obama and Romney are virtually tied nationally, but Obama has "a significant advantage in the eight battleground states, leading by 14 points among registered voters." Still, there are plenty of reasons for Democrats to temper their optimism. Plenty of candidates have lost after having a one-point national lead at this point, and Romney has eight weeks and three debates to turn the tables.
"Obama's post-convention bounce continues"
Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Help! Do we really need four Beatles biopics?
Talking Point The cast of Sam Mendes' Beatles biopics has been announced
By Chas Newkey-Burden, The Week UK Published
-
Test driving the Rolls-Royce Spectre Black Badge
The Week Recommends We take the most powerful Rolls-Royce ever built for a spin in Barcelona
By Fergus Scholes Published
-
Tuberculosis is seeing a resurgence, and it's only going to get worse
Under the radar The spread of the deadly infection is buoyed by global unrest
By Devika Rao, The Week US Published
-
The JFK files: the truth at last?
In The Spotlight More than 64,000 previously classified documents relating the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy have been released by the Trump administration
By The Week Staff Published
-
'Seriously, not literally': how should the world take Donald Trump?
Today's big question White House rhetoric and reality look likely to become increasingly blurred
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Will Trump's 'madman' strategy pay off?
Today's Big Question Incoming US president likes to seem unpredictable but, this time round, world leaders could be wise to his playbook
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
Democrats vs. Republicans: who are the billionaires backing?
The Explainer Younger tech titans join 'boys' club throwing money and support' behind President Trump, while older plutocrats quietly rebuke new administration
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
By The Week UK Published
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published