Could Michele Bachmann lose her House race?

"Despite her national fan base and a massive war chest, Rep. Michele Bachmann may be in more danger than most suspect," says Alex Seitz-Wald at Salon. The Minnesota Republican and former presidential candidate has easily held her state's conservative 6th congressional district since winning the seat in 2006, but a new poll from Democratic opponent Jim Graves has the candidates statistically tied, with Bachmann leading by a slim 48 percent to 46 percent. The momentum seems to be in Graves' favor, with his support jumping three points from a June poll, independents swinging heavily in his direction, and Bachmann's approval ratings plummeting. At the same time, the Democrat's poll shows that only 38 percent of voters in the district even know who Graves is. And the wealthy hotelier has just $350,000 in his war chest versus Bachmann's $2.2 million. Can Graves pull off an upset, or is Bachmann's political demise just a liberal fantasy?

Bachmann may want to update her résumé: Minnesota's right-wing darling is "in serious jeopardy of losing," says Doug Barry at Jezebel. But when you think about it, this is "not altogether unpredictable given Bachmann's summer of tragic press quippings" about the government being infiltrated by the Muslim Brotherhood, among other craziness. But really, it's the flight of independents and the absence of the usual vote-splitting third-party candidate that's most worrisome for Bachmann. "Fox News is probably warming her a mug of cocoa" as we speak.

"Fare thee well? Michele Bachmann suddenly in danger of losing..."

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She'll pull out the win: "The portion of the media that runs on Bachmann-hate" is thrilled about this poll, but remember, it's from a Democratic pollster at the behest of the Graves campaign, says Kerry Howley at Slate. Graves himself is the sort of "moderate, market-loving, pro-choice, libertarianish Democrat" that might have some crossover appeal, but history is against him. Bachmann "has always been divisive, and she always ekes out a win." Besides, if her nutty ways haven't already "driven constituents from her corner, one wonders what will."

"Hotelier Jim Graves wants to make Minnesota boring again"

Either way, the next two months will be entertaining: This race is at best a toss-up, but Graves' poll does add to the evidence that Bachmann is Minnesota's least-popular politician, says Aaron Rupar at the Minneapolis City Pages. Still, she has millions in her war chest, and she's certainly not going down quietly. "What tricks does the wily incumbent have up her sleeves between now and November? Not gonna lie, we can't wait to find out."

"Bachmann and Jim Graves now neck and neck as Michele's favorability tanks"

Read more political coverage at The Week's 2012 Election Center.