The presidential election: Has the GOP already lost?

Almost by definition, we conservatives prefer a realistic view of the world, said George F. Will in The Washington Post. So let’s just admit it right now: Republicans have very little chance of beating Barack Obama in November. Neither of the party’s two remaining viable candidates, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum, has “demonstrated, or seems likely to develop, an aptitude for energizing a national coalition that translates into 270 electoral votes.” Meanwhile, the improving economy has lifted President Obama’s poll numbers—his approval rating hit 50 percent in this week’s NBC/Wall Street Journal poll. This doesn’t mean the GOP can’t win the White House; eight months is an eternity in politics. But realistic Republicans should now shift their primary focus to keeping their control of the House, and seizing control of the Senate. Then Republican committee chairmen can block Obama’s liberal initiatives, and limit the damage. “The presidency is not everything,” and in 2016, the GOP will have its pick of fine candidates who just weren’t ready this time around.

I respect George Will, said William Kristol in WeeklyStandard.com, but “rarely has an intelligent man been so wrong.” Romney may not be an ideal nominee, but Republicans still have “a reasonable chance to defeat President Obama—probably between 1-in-3 and 1-in-2.” Too much is at stake—the fate of Obamacare, the debt, Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons—and it would be foolish to “hoist the white flag” so early. Obama’s poll numbers are still profoundly mediocre, especially in the swing states that will decide the election, said Ramesh Ponnuru in Bloomberg.com. Almost 60 percent of voters, furthermore, still believe the country is “‘on the wrong track,’ which typically doesn’t bode well for an incumbent president.” Even if conservatives aren’t wild about Romney, they’ll turn out in full force if the alternative is another four years of Obama.

Don’t bet on it, said Andrew Sullivan in TheDailyBeast.com. The GOP’s presumptive nominee is a plastic, plutocratic gaffe-machine who looks worse and worse the more voters see of him. His favorable rating among all voters has sunk to 32 percent, while his unfavorable rating is now a sky-high 48 percent. “How do you win when half the country doesn’t, you know, like you?” Behind closed doors, said Chris Cillizza in The Washington Post, some moderate Republicans are starting to whisper that a solid drubbing in November might in fact be good for the party. An Obama blowout might force the GOP to reconsider its embrace of its anti-immigrant, socially conservative base, and to rebrand itself for the next election.

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March is hardly the right month to give up on November, said David Kuhn in RealClearPolitics.com. At this time in 1980, Jimmy Carter’s approval rating was 55 percent; in March 2004, John Kerry had an 8-point poll lead over Bush. Yes, Obama’s numbers have improved, but his advantage is slight, and in a bitterly divided, red/blue nation, the election will likely be very close. Republicans must indeed be realistic, said Rich Lowry in National Review. That means realizing that “no silver lining can possibly outweigh the setback the GOP will suffer if President Obama wins a second term.” Republican defeat in November would end all hope of undoing Obamacare, guarantee further ruinous spending, and let Obama appoint at least one, and perhaps three, more liberal justices to the Supreme Court—enough “to shift the balance of the court for decades.” Obama is still beatable, and “there is no substitute for victory.”