Gary Johnson's 2012 Libertarian run: 4 predictions
The ex-New Mexico governor plans to drop out of the GOP presidential race and run as the Libertarian Party's candidate. Will he split the conservative vote?

Former two-term New Mexico Gov. Gary Johnson hasn't exactly taken the 2012 presidential race by storm. He was only invited to two Republican presidential debates, and his poll numbers barely register. So on Dec. 28, Johnson is quitting the GOP presidential race and trying his luck with the Libertarian Party. "The move isn't exactly an ideological stretch," says Julian Brookes in Rolling Stone. "The dude basically is a libertarian." Assuming Johnson wins the Libertarian nomination in May — the party is courting Jesse Ventura and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), too — here are four ways his third-party bid could shape the 2012 contest:
1. He might win a key swing state
Libertarians say this every four years, says Jim Newell at Gawker, but with Johnson, this really "could be the election where their party's candidate breaks through and makes an impact!" He could certainly do something no Libertarian standard-bearer has done in the party's 40-year history: Win a state, says Conor Friedersdorf at The Atlantic. Pollster PPP included Johnson as a third-party option in a recent poll of New Mexico, and "he'd be competitive in a three-way race" of the key swing state he used to govern. Indeed, in the race for New Mexico's five electoral votes, Johnson trails Mitt Romney by only four points.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
2. Johnson will make Obama's re-election much likelier
Johnson's third-party bid is "great news for President Obama," says Evan McMorris-Santoro at Talking Points Memo. PPP's data shows that just about "any third-party candidate would help Obama" by taking votes from the GOP, and when Johnson specifically was added to a new national poll, he turned a Romney win into a loss. Sure, Obama would lose some of the youth vote to the pro-drug-legalization Johnson. But overall, Johnson's anti-government, libertarian platform would steal many, many more votes from the GOP.
3. Or he'll tip the race to the GOP nominee
"Republicans who fear that any ticket splitting would doom the party's chances" to unseat Obama should relax, says Noah Rothman at PoliticOlogy. Johnson could actually help the GOP. Republicans say they're more predisposed than Democrats to vote for a third-party candidate, but "when it comes time to go into the voting booth, they vote for the GOP nominee." The last time the Libertarian presidential ticket got more than 1 percent of the vote was in 1980, and Ronald Reagan still cruised to victory. Bottom line: "An unpopular Democratic president has slightly more to fear from a centrist candidate or two on the ticket as moderate and centrist voters turn away from the incumbent."
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
4. Johnson will be a non-factor
The media will continue to ignore Johnson, especially now that he's stepping out of the two-party system, says Doug Mataconis at Outside the Beltway. So "I don't expect Gary Johnson to do much better than any other Libertarian Party nominee." Hey, it's not the media's fault Johnson never caught fire, says Jim Geraghty at National Review. It's Johnson's. He polls at 1 percent or less in New Hampshire, the state where he chose to make his stand as a Republican. Let's face it: "Sometimes, a candidate just isn't any good."
-
China looms large over India and Pakistan’s latest violence
IN THE SPOTLIGHT Beijing may not have had troops on the ground. But as South Asia's two nuclear powers bared their teeth over Kashmir, China eyed opportunity in its own backyard
-
What's wrong with America's air traffic control systems?
Today's Big Question The radios and radar keep going out at Newark International
-
8 splashy items to elevate any pool party
The Week Recommends Fire up the snow cone machine, and turn on that outdoor movie projector
-
The JFK files: the truth at last?
In The Spotlight More than 64,000 previously classified documents relating the 1963 assassination of John F. Kennedy have been released by the Trump administration
-
'Seriously, not literally': how should the world take Donald Trump?
Today's big question White House rhetoric and reality look likely to become increasingly blurred
-
Will Trump's 'madman' strategy pay off?
Today's Big Question Incoming US president likes to seem unpredictable but, this time round, world leaders could be wise to his playbook
-
Democrats vs. Republicans: who are the billionaires backing?
The Explainer Younger tech titans join 'boys' club throwing money and support' behind President Trump, while older plutocrats quietly rebuke new administration
-
US election: where things stand with one week to go
The Explainer Harris' lead in the polls has been narrowing in Trump's favour, but her campaign remains 'cautiously optimistic'
-
Is Trump okay?
Today's Big Question Former president's mental fitness and alleged cognitive decline firmly back in the spotlight after 'bizarre' town hall event
-
The life and times of Kamala Harris
The Explainer The vice-president is narrowly leading the race to become the next US president. How did she get to where she is now?
-
Will 'weirdly civil' VP debate move dial in US election?
Today's Big Question 'Diametrically opposed' candidates showed 'a lot of commonality' on some issues, but offered competing visions for America's future and democracy