The GOP endgame: Who will drop out after Iowa?

There are just two weeks to go until the crucial Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, and if history is any guide, by Jan. 4, at least one candidate will call it quits

Despite visiting all 99 of Iowa's counties and courting the state's religious leaders, Rick Santorum probably isn't going to win the Iowa caucuses, and some forecasters expect him to drop out
(Image credit: Benjamin J. Myers/Corbis)

The race for the GOP presidential nomination has been a roller coaster ride, with one candidate after another surging and crashing. Of course, the race is still extremely fluid two weeks before Iowa kicks off the voting with its first-in-the-nation caucuses. But "the conventional wisdom still holds," says James Hohmann at Politico: "It's the top three on Jan. 3 who'll get to move on" past Iowa. The Hawkeye State "rarely chooses either party's nominee," says Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post, but "it has long served to winnow the field." In 2008, for instance, Democrats Joe Biden and Chris Dodd immediately dropped out after poor Iowa finishes. Recent polls show Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney looking strongest in Iowa. Which GOP hopefuls will throw in the towel after the Jan. 3 caucuses? Here, four predictions:

1. Rick Santorum

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