The GOP endgame: Who will drop out after Iowa?
There are just two weeks to go until the crucial Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses, and if history is any guide, by Jan. 4, at least one candidate will call it quits

A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
Thank you for signing up to TheWeek. You will receive a verification email shortly.
There was a problem. Please refresh the page and try again.
The race for the GOP presidential nomination has been a roller coaster ride, with one candidate after another surging and crashing. Of course, the race is still extremely fluid two weeks before Iowa kicks off the voting with its first-in-the-nation caucuses. But "the conventional wisdom still holds," says James Hohmann at Politico: "It's the top three on Jan. 3 who'll get to move on" past Iowa. The Hawkeye State "rarely chooses either party's nominee," says Chris Cillizza at The Washington Post, but "it has long served to winnow the field." In 2008, for instance, Democrats Joe Biden and Chris Dodd immediately dropped out after poor Iowa finishes. Recent polls show Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and Mitt Romney looking strongest in Iowa. Which GOP hopefuls will throw in the towel after the Jan. 3 caucuses? Here, four predictions:
1. Rick Santorum
The socially conservative former Pennsylvania senator has bet the farm on Iowa. "He has visited all 99 of Iowa's counties and courted every leading religious group in the state," says Sam Youngman at Reuters. "He has campaigned from sunrise to sundown in the diners, town halls, and community centers that are so crucial to the type of personal contact that Iowa voters have responded to for generations." But what worked for last cycle's Iowa winner — Mike Huckabee — isn't working for Santorum. He's "running no better than a distant fourth" in the polls, and "even if the top three stumble, it's questionable whether Santorum will be in position to take advantage." He needs a highly unlikely "top-two finish" to keep going, says Cillizza.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
2. Michele Bachmann
After her victory in Iowa's much-hyped Ames Straw Poll in August, Hawkeye State native Bachmann "was the clear frontrunner for the Iowa caucuses," says The Washington Post's Cillizza. Then her poll numbers crashed. She seems to be recovering some lost ground with a pugnacious message about being a rare consistent conservative, but "she lacks the money to get that message out." Bottom line on Bachmann: "Without another obvious state where she can win, it's hard to see her as a relevant factor if she can't take first or second on Jan. 3."
3. Rick Perry
Perry has more money than Bachmann or Santorum, and he's barnstorming the state. But he hasn't clawed his way into the magic top three slots in the polls, says Politico's Hohmann. Without a "clear breakout" performance, Iowa could be Perry's "last stand." Voters in other states simply won't take him seriously if he winds up in fourth place or lower — and especially if he doesn't finish well ahead of Bachmann and Santorum.
4. No one
"Contrary to conventional wisdom and recent history, it's possible Iowa may do little to thin the herd of candidates," says Jennifer Rubin at The Washington Post. "Candidates who finish in the back of the pack" may still win 10 percent or more of the vote, and in a race this volatile, that's a good enough reason to keep going. And if a toxic crackpot like Paul wins, as seems eminently possible, "there is good reason for the entire field to throw up its collective hands, declare the contest irrelevant, and consider New Hampshire to be the first meaningful contest."
Continue reading for free
We hope you're enjoying The Week's refreshingly open-minded journalism.
Subscribed to The Week? Register your account with the same email as your subscription.
Sign up to our 10 Things You Need to Know Today newsletter
A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
-
6 vibrant homes with art studios
Feature Featuring a six-bedroom home in Vermont and a rustic-modern house in California
By The Week Staff Published
-
Experts are worried about tuberculosis again
Speed Read The deadly disease regained its crown as the world's biggest infectious killer in October 2022
By Devika Rao Published
-
The daily gossip: Beyoncé is bringing the 'Renaissance' tour to movie theaters, Taylor Swift attends another Chiefs game with famous pals, and more
Feature The daily gossip: October 2, 2023
By Brendan Morrow Published
-
Dianne Feinstein, history-making Democratic US senator, dies at 90
The Explainer Her colleagues celebrate her legacy as a trailblazer who cleared the path for other women to follow
By Theara Coleman Published
-
Will the cannabis banking bill get the Senate's green light?
Talking Point The SAFER Banking Act is advancing to the US Senate for the first time, clearing a major hurdle for legal cannabis businesses. Does it stand a chance?
By Theara Coleman Published
-
Trump surrenders in Georgia election subversion case
Speed Read
By Catherine Garcia Published
-
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries chosen to succeed Pelosi as leader of House Democrats
Speed Read
By Brigid Kennedy Published
-
GOP leader Kevin McCarthy's bid for House speaker may really be in peril
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
Are China's protests a real threat for Beijing?
opinion The sharpest opinions on the debate from around the web
By Harold Maass Published
-
Who is Nick Fuentes, the white nationalist who dined with Trump and Kanye?
Speed Read From Charlottesville to Mar-a-Lago in just five years
By Rafi Schwartz Published
-
Jury convicts Oath Keepers Stewart Rhodes, Kelly Meggs of seditious conspiracy in landmark Jan. 6 verdict
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published