Democrat Kathy Hochul's upset victory in NY-26: 5 theories
A Democrat wins in a conservative congressional district's special election, after framing the vote as a referendum on the GOP's Medicare reform plans. What does it mean?

A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
Thank you for signing up to TheWeek. You will receive a verification email shortly.
There was a problem. Please refresh the page and try again.
Democrat Kathy Hochul won a special House election in a reliably conservative district of western New York on Tuesday, in what her supporters called a rejection of the effort by House Republicans to turn Medicare into a voucher system. Republicans dismissed the suggestion that the result was a referendum on Rep. Paul Ryan's Medicare plan. They say that the GOP candidate, Jane Corwin, lost because a third candidate, who ran as a Tea Partier, siphoned away some of her votes in the race to replace Chistopher Lee, the GOP congressman who resigned after posting shirtless photos on Craiglist. What was the real message of Tuesday's vote in New York's 26th congressional district? Here, five theories:
1. Paul Ryan's Medicare plan is toxic
Tuesday's vote settles it. "Ryan's Medicare plan is political suicide," says Mickey Kaus at The Daily Caller. Republicans were winning the debate over cutting spending until the House Budget Committee chairman started pushing a budget that would remake Medicare. "Maybe now the GOPs will wise up and actually try to win in 2012."
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
2. A Tea Party spoiler can change everything
The GOP "nominated a fairly conservative establishment Republican in Jane Corwin," says Chris Chocola at National Review. But she "did a terrible job articulating the free-market message." That opened the door to an ex-Democrat, Jack Davis, to take up the Tea Party banner, and peel away fiscal conservatives by demagoguing the crucial issue of trade.
3. The GOP surge is officially over
Hochul is so much more popular than Corwin that she would have won even without Davis playing the role of spoiler, says Jonathan Chait in The New Republic. Still, Hochul could not possibly have won this race in 2010, when Americans were pessimistic about the economy and "directed virtually all the blame at the Democrats." The NY-26 surprise proves that, thanks to the GOP's unpopular policies, "the political landscape that produced the Republican sweep of 2010 is gone."
4. Democrats could win back the House in 2012
Sure, this is just one district, says Tom Jensen at Public Policy Polling. But it seems to confirm polling indicating that Republicans have gone from winners to losers in nationwide generic ballots, after just a few months in control of the House. This might well be "the first step toward the very real possibility that Democrats take the House back next year."
5. There are no larger lessons here
Let's be honest, says Jonathan S. Tobin at Commentary. The only reason anyone is talking about NY-26 being a bellwether is that the national media loves a hot story — political writers wouldn't be claiming this vote meant anything if the Republican had won. In truth, this is just a local race where a lot came into play — from longtime Democrat Jack Davis' phony Tea Party spoiler role to the demoralization of the local GOP "by the absurd scandal that brought down incumbent Congressman Christopher Lee only a few months after an easy re-election victory."
Continue reading for free
We hope you're enjoying The Week's refreshingly open-minded journalism.
Subscribed to The Week? Register your account with the same email as your subscription.
Sign up to our 10 Things You Need to Know Today newsletter
A free daily digest of the biggest news stories of the day - and the best features from our website
-
'A teetering democracy of gerontocrats?'
Instant opinion Opinion, comment and editorials of the day
By Harold Maass Published
-
Every 'Saw' film, ranked
The Explainer The highs and lows of the gory horror soap opera
By Brendan Morrow Published
-
Why did the Hadrian’s Wall tree mean so much to us?
Talking Point Teenager arrested after Sycamore Gap tree felled overnight
By Felicity Capon Published
-
Will the cannabis banking bill get the Senate's green light?
Talking Point The SAFER Banking Act is advancing to the US Senate for the first time, clearing a major hurdle for legal cannabis businesses. Does it stand a chance?
By Theara Coleman Published
-
Trump surrenders in Georgia election subversion case
Speed Read
By Catherine Garcia Published
-
Rep. Hakeem Jeffries chosen to succeed Pelosi as leader of House Democrats
Speed Read
By Brigid Kennedy Published
-
GOP leader Kevin McCarthy's bid for House speaker may really be in peril
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
Are China's protests a real threat for Beijing?
opinion The sharpest opinions on the debate from around the web
By Harold Maass Published
-
Who is Nick Fuentes, the white nationalist who dined with Trump and Kanye?
Speed Read From Charlottesville to Mar-a-Lago in just five years
By Rafi Schwartz Published
-
Jury convicts Oath Keepers Stewart Rhodes, Kelly Meggs of seditious conspiracy in landmark Jan. 6 verdict
Speed Read
By Peter Weber Published
-
A look at the White House's festive and homey holiday decor
Speed Read
By Brigid Kennedy Published