Misreading China on North Korea

Why does the U.S. “still think it can change North Korea by relying on China’s influence?” asked Park Sung-soo in JoongAng Daily. China is not a brake on North Korea but an “enabler.” North Korea’s attack last month on South Korea’s Yeonpyeong Island, for example, was surely “staged with the tacit approval of China.” The point was to protest the joint U.S.–South Korean naval exercises in the Yellow Sea, which took place just days after the attack. Had North Korea simply sat by and watched the exercises, it would have “appeared to be cowed” and “lose its prestige.” China, too, would have been “humiliated in the eyes of neighboring countries by being overwhelmed by U.S. military might advancing into its backyard.” So a pre-emptive attack was launched.

The episode underscores “how crucial Seoul’s military alliance with Washington is to national security,” said the Dong-a Ilbo in an editorial. As long as the aircraft carrier USS George Washington is patrolling nearby, North Korea won’t launch another attack. But the fleet isn’t always in our waters—it’s based in Japan. In a crisis it would take a few days to reach us. The question for South Korea, then, is “what to do after the U.S. 7th Fleet leaves the Yellow Sea.” We’re going to have to beef up our naval capabilities.

South Korea can’t simply rely on the U.S. to protect it, said China’s Huangqiu Times. The U.S.–South Korean alliance “is like a nuclear weapon—strategically threatening, but not at all practical to use.” In theory, North Korea is weaker than the U.S.–South Korea tandem, but in practice, “South Korea is always the underdog during any conflict with North Korea.” The South Koreans need to take a new approach and recognize that it’s in their own interest to enhance North Korea’s stability and security so the North does not feel threatened.

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The first step is for South Korea and the U.S. to stop their military posturing and agree to rejoin the six-party talks with North Korea, said China’s People’s Daily. Seoul and Washington mistakenly think that issuing ultimatums to Pyongyang will force it to yield, and they’ve been pressuring Beijing to join their efforts. “They think once China gets tough, North Korea will behave—but such logic is quite ludicrous.” The “Korean temperament” is independent and strong-willed, as South Koreans well know. Threats will simply make North Korea dig in its heels. “The only pragmatic solution” is to sit down and talk, forging “mutual compromise for lasting peninsular peace.”