The House: How badly will the Dems lose?
The last polls before Tuesday's midterm elections are fueling predictions of a Republican landslide. How many seats will Democrats lose? Forty, 50, 60...or more?
The final polls came in over the weekend, and almost all pointed to deepening trouble for House Democrats in the midterms. Republicans need to pick up 39 seats to regain control of the House, a goal most pundits predict they'll reach with ease. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, managing expectations, said even 37 seats would constitute success. But the latest USA Today/Gallup poll suggests GOP gains could push into "uncharted territory" — reaching 60 or more seats, "the worst shellacking of a president's party in a half-century." How will the chips fall? (Watch a CNN discussion about Democrats' chances)
The Dems face an epic blowout: "It's not even going to be close," says Jacob Heilbrunn at The National Interest. Americans are itching to go out and vote not so much against the Democrats as against President Obama, "the man who personifies government overreach to an angry and aroused electorate." This is going to be a historic blowout, with the GOP picking up "70 seats or more.""The Republican landslide"
The GOP will merely recover its old majority: The smart money has Republicans picking up 50 or so seats, says Timothy P. Carney at the Washington Examiner, mostly predictable "snap-backs" (seats Republicans lost in the 2006 and 2008 Democratic waves). The GOP could even gain 60 seats and still not steal any "Democratic turf" — they'll merely be climbing back to where they were before they "threw away their majority with "overspending, two wars, and rampant corruption.""Election 2010: A correction, not a revolution"
It's unlikely, but the Dems could still hold the House: The GOP seems poised for a very strong Tuesday, says data guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, but there are still a lot of variables. Our forecast gives the GOP 53 seats, but in all honesty their gains could be anywhere from 23 to 81 seats, so it's still possible Democrats could hold onto the House. "To claim you can predict Republican gains within a range of 5 or 10 seats isn't science — it's superstition.""Agreeing to disagree: Size of Republican wave hard to predict"