Musharraf Blamed for al Qaida’s Resurgence

What happened

The Bush administration exerted new pressure on Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf this week to take military action against al Qaida terrorists hiding in his country, after tribal chiefs in the country's remote northwest border region renounced a 10-month-old truce and declared war on the government. Islamic militants in North Waziristan province last week mounted a series of attacks, including suicide car bombs, that killed more than 70, mostly police and soldiers.

Just days after that uprising, U.S. intelligence agencies reported that al Qaida had exploited Musharraf's hands-off policy toward the tribal regions along the Afghanistan border to re-establish its training, communications, and planning networks there. As a result, the National Intelligence Estimate said, a revitalized al Qaida may now be planning a new attack on U.S. soil. Musharraf's policy toward the tribal region 'œhasn't worked for Pakistan,' said Frances Fragos Townsend, the head of the Homeland Security Council at the White House. 'œIt hasn't worked for the United States.'

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The U.S. State Department said it sees Musharraf's truce with the militants as a disaster and now expects the Pakistanis to act decisively. 'œSome elements have to be dealt with militarily,' said Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher. But with his hold on power increasingly tenuous, Musharraf responded to the latest crisis by sending a delegation to North Waziristan's tribal leaders to try to salvage the truce.

What the editorials said

'œCuriously, Bush has lost no confidence in Musharraf,' said Investor's Business Daily. The deal with the tribal chiefs of North Waziristan was a 'œbogus peace treaty' that 'œonly worked to buy Osama bin Laden and the al Qaida leadership more time' to plot attacks against us. We can no longer sit back 'œbiting our nails,' waiting for the terror network to launch a new attack, while Musharraf fiddles. It's time to send in drones, U.S. fighter jets, and, if necessary, troops to take out al Qaida's camps.

We'd better be more strategic than that, said The Dallas Morning News. 'œThe Pakistani street is seething with anger and militancy,' and lest we forget, it is an Islamic nation with 'œnuclear bombs and middle-range missiles.' When unpopular regimes supported by the U.S. fall, they are almost always replaced by anti-American leadership. Musharraf sits atop a 'œnuclear powder keg,' and U.S. policy should be designed to slowly create more democracy in Pakistan'”not to produce an abrupt, and possibly disastrous, change of leaders.

What the columnists said

Musharraf is clearly in big trouble, said Daveed Gartenstein-Ross said in The Weekly Standard. He has acted 'œerratically and inconsistently,' cracking down last week on militants holed up the Red Mosque in Islamabad, and then trying to placate the tribal chiefs along the border. He appears to be 'œgoverning without a strategy,' both appeasing terrorists and trying to suppress them, as he frantically tries to preserve what's left of his support.

If he has any hope of continuing to rule, said Najam Sethi in The Wall Street Journal, his first step 'œis to reform the madrasas.' The number of these Islamic religious schools has doubled during Musharraf's rule. Instead of preparing young men for jobs, they train them to loathe the 'œinfidel West' and support terrorism. Pakistan's democracy-seeking middle class fears these madrasas and the extremism they spawn, but if left unchallenged, the Islamists will try to topple Musharraf and install one of their own.

That's not likely to happen, said Peter Bergen in The New Republic. The Islamists have never won more than 12 percent of the vote in Pakistan, and polls show that they would get only 5 percent in national elections now scheduled after Musharraf's term expires in November. The real threat to Musharraf's power comes from former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who enjoys widespread support among the middle class and may soon return from exile. If she does, Musharraf can either 'œassert his authority as a rigid autocrat' and rig the elections, or make a power-sharing deal with Bhutto and her supporters. Either way, his regime may be nearing its end.

What next?