The Iraq Study Group’s Ominous Report

What does it mean for U.S. policies in the Middle East?

What happened

The final report of the Iraq Study Group, presented this week to President Bush, warns that 'œthe situation in Iraq is grave and deteriorating' and could lead to 'œthe collapse of the Iraqi government and a humanitarian catastrophe.' In the most intensive assessment yet of the 4-year-old war, the bipartisan group said the Bush administration's current policy 'œis not working,' and recommended seeking a regional, diplomatic solution to escalating conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. The report makes 79 recommendations aimed at helping the Iraqi government take control of the country, including embedding more U.S. troops in Iraqi army units to speed their training. No immediate troop withdrawals, or increase in troop levels, are suggested, though the report recommends that most U.S. troops be withdrawn by 2008.

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What the editorials said

This report is 'œa parody' of the wishful thinking and meaningless rhetoric produced by bipartisan commissions, said National Review. The only 'œway forward' is sending more troops to kill insurgents and root out terrorists, not throwing up our hands and asking Iran and Syria to save us. Talking to rogue nations such as Iran and Syria about peace is like talking 'œto arsonists about fire prevention,' said Investor's Business Daily. With diplomatic options like those, 'œthe best thing Bush could do is read the report, shred it, and do exactly the opposite.'

Talking to Iran and Syria may be distasteful, but we have no choice, said the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Iran is 'œthe Persian Gulf's most rapidly ascendant power.' It's not appeasement to recognize that the U.S. and Iran have a common interest 'œin preventing Iraqi implosion.' As for Syria, it is a weak nation that fears both Iran and al Qaida, and 'œwants a closer relationship with the United States.' This is our chance to co-opt Damascus.

What the columnists said

Baker, a foreign policy 'œrealist' from Bush's father's administration, is offering the current president nothing but 'œa fantasy,' said Charles Krauthammer in The Washington Post. Iran and Syria 'œhave an overriding interest in chaos in Iraq—which is precisely why they each have been abetting the insurgency and fanning civil war.' The only realistic option left is to present Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki with an ultimatum: Come up with a political solution to the Sunni-Shiite conflict in two months, or the U.S. 'œwill abandon the Green Zone, retire to its bases, and let the civil war take its course.'

This report will satisfy neither gung-ho conservatives nor the anti-war left, said Robert Dreyfuss in The Nation. But it represents Washington's bipartisan consensus that the Iraq adventure has failed, and is thus the first step in 'œthe process of ending the war.' In the coming months, the Republicans will go along with Democratic calls for a 'œphased withdrawal' because they 'œare desperate to take Iraq off the table as an election issue in 2008.'

It may be too late for that, said Trudy Rubin in The Philadelphia Inquirer. The Baker report's recommendations are worth trying, but the fact that al-Maliki 'œis weak and beholden to radical Shiite forces' may prevent any resolution of the country's deep divisions. After four years of mistakes, nothing we try now may stop Iraq's slide into chaos.

What next?

Prominent Democrats quickly lined up behind the report, saying that it had made clear that military victory was impossible, and that U.S. troop withdrawals should begin in 2007. 'œIt is time for the Iraqis to build and secure their nation, and it is time for American combat troops to be redeployed,' said Sen. Harry Reid of Nevada, who will become the Democratic majority leader in the new Congress. Sen. Charles Schumer of New York said the study group's report put the big question on the table: 'œIs the president ready for a change of course? All eyes now are on this president.'

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