The GOP’s Congressional Jitters

Congress returned from its summer recess this week, with a divided Republican Party bracing itself for a possible Democratic landslide in November's midterm elections. With President Bush's approval ratings still in the 30s, and the public increasingly discouraged about the war in Iraq, nonpartisan analysts predicted that the Democrats would be able to win the necessary 15 seats to recapture the House.

Democrats, the analysts said, might even win a majority in the Senate as well—a prospect that would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. 'œIf a huge wave hits, the races all tend to go in one direction, so Democrats have an opportunity,' said pollster Stuart Rothenberg, who handicaps every congressional race in the country. GOP strategists said their only real hope of keeping both houses is to highlight the issue of national security in an age of global terrorism. 'œThe security issue trumps everything,' a senior Bush official told the New York Daily News. 'œThat's why even though they're really mad at us, in the end they're going to give us another two years.'

If Republicans lose in November, said Brendan Conway in The New York Sun, the party may never be the same. A solid electoral drubbing might well bring about the split some analysts have long predicted between social conservatives and 'œfreedom-minded libertarians.' The libertarians have been appalled by the high-spending, 'œbig government conservatism' of the Bush administration. If their disenchantment keeps them at home on Election Day, it could lead to a permanent 'œdivorce.'

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Congress is 'œbroken' and needs to be fixed, said David Broder in The Washington Post. The war in Iraq may be the dominant issue in the elections, but the public hasn't forgotten about the lobbying scandals, the 'œrunaway spending,' and Congress' 'œnear abandonment of effective oversight of executive agencies.' There's no guarantee that the Democrats would do a better job than the Republicans, but it's obvious that Congress needs an influx of 'œnew faces.'

The Wall Street Journal