What will decide the fate of the GOP's ObamaCare repeal? Glorious self-interest.

This conservative senator's principles were no match for self-preservation

Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., speaks on Capitol Hill.
(Image credit: AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

In the late 1940s, a bureaucrat in the Bureau of the Budget (the predecessor to today's Office of Management and Budget) came up with what would come to be known as Miles' Law. When one of his subordinates took a job in another agency, Rufus Miles predicted that the gentleman would soon change his position on the cuts to that second agency's budget that he had theretofore advocated. Miles was right, giving rise to the maxim, "Where you stand depends on where you sit." Once the man's direct interests changed, so would his beliefs.

With the first great legislative drama of the Trump administration underway, it's natural to think that this is a fight over ideology. How much responsibility to ensure health security does government have? Is health care a right or a privilege? Should the free market be left to do what it will even if it fails? These kinds of questions do matter a great deal in the design of competing plans for our health-care system. But the practical question of the moment — is the Republican effort to dismantle the Affordable Care Act going to succeed or fail? — will be determined by where everyone sits.

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Paul Waldman

Paul Waldman is a senior writer with The American Prospect magazine and a blogger for The Washington Post. His writing has appeared in dozens of newspapers, magazines, and web sites, and he is the author or co-author of four books on media and politics.