Did the Fed give us Trump?

And will it do so again in November?

The Federal Reserve building.
(Image credit: Illustrated | Getty Images, iStock)

Sometimes it's hard to know what old rules of politics still apply in the Age of Trump. But this one might: If you're the presidential nominee of the incumbent party, you don't want a lousy election-year economy. And it's also one rule President Trump probably has no interest in breaking. He's pushed for the U.S. economy to reopen as fast and fully as possible during the pandemic.

Four years ago, roles were reversed. Trump was the challenger during a time of economic weakness, while Hillary Clinton was the nominee of the incumbent party. No, there wasn't an all-out recession back then. But things were probably worse than you remember. From the third quarter of 2015 though the third quarter of 2016, the economy grew at a sluggish 1.6 percent annual pace. That compares to nearly 4 percent in the previous five quarters and nearly 3 percent in the subsequent five quarters. So a lull for more than a full year.

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James Pethokoukis

James Pethokoukis is the DeWitt Wallace Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute where he runs the AEIdeas blog. He has also written for The New York Times, National Review, Commentary, The Weekly Standard, and other places.