Russia and China: long battle over debt and tension in the markets

While a Russian debt default is deemed manageable, the embroilment of China may not be

Putin is looking to pay unfriendly creditors in roubles
Putin is looking to pay unfriendly creditors in roubles
(Image credit: Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images)

“The last comprehensive default on Russian foreign debt was in the aftermath of the Russian Revolution when the Bolshevik government repudiated Tsarist-era debts,” said Tommy Stubbington and Max Seddon in the FT. More than 100 years on, default loomed again this week as investors awaited payment of debt interest worth $117m on two dollar bonds due on Wednesday. “The deadline marked a crucial test of Moscow’s willingness and ability to continue servicing its external debt”, following the freezing of half its $630bn war chest of foreign reserves. Earlier this month, President Vladimir Putin said that creditors in “unfriendly” countries “should be paid in roubles rather than foreign currency”. Fitch, the credit ratings agency, said it would view any such “forced redenomination” as indicative “that a default, or a default-like process has begun”.

Tension is running high in Chinese markets, where several indices suffered their “biggest plunge” since 2008 this week, said Bloomberg. The “broad rout” followed reports that Russia had asked China for military help. Despite denials from Beijing, there are fears its embroilment “could bring a global backlash against Chinese firms, even sanctions”. There is a growing consensus that Beijing will reply “nyet” to Moscow’s requests and may even broker peace talks, said Ben Wright in The Daily Telegraph. Let’s hope so. “If China does back Russia financially – let alone militarily – then we need to brace ourselves.” Cutting Russia out of world trade may or may not result in a global recession. “Doing the same to China would doubtless result in a global depression.

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