Against all odds: How does Trump stumble on?

There’s no doubt Donald Trump has been setting records in the first six months of his "big and beautiful" presidency.

His approval ratings hit 38 per cent in the first week of August - the lowest of any US president; he’s staffed the West Wing with more family members than John F Kennedy or Bill Clinton, and, says the New York Times, "there is simply no precedent for an American president to spend so much time telling untruths".

However, there has been no such records on his legislative agenda. The US President has failed to make much headway on campaign promises - from gutting Obamacare to building a Mexican wall - and his White House team are now in the crosshairs of special counsel Robert Mueller, who’s convened a grand jury over possible ties to Russia.

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

Sign up

Trump blames Congress, "fake news" and Democratic "witch hunts" for his woes - when he even acknowledges that there's a problem.

"What we know about Trump is that for his entire adult life he has created the reality he wants around him - and then insisted, over and over again, it is the only reality," says CNN's editor-at-large Chris Cillizza.

While the President brushes off bad news, surprisingly so have many voters. Trump has retained most of his core supporters as well as the Republican leadership in Congress, buoyed by four "special election" victories - the US equivalent of by-elections.

His poll numbers "have been shockingly stable," says RealClearPolitics: "Specifically, Trump's job approval has hovered around the 40 percent mark for over two months, almost never deviating by more than one percentage point."

So why does so much of the criticism refuse to stick?

It's the economy, stupid

Trump has a 44.7 per cent approval rating on economic issues on RealClearPolitics, which isn’t so far off the 46 per cent he won in the 2016 election.

Growth statistics show the US economy accelerated to an annual rate of 2.6 per cent in the second quarter of this year, although that's still below the much-vaunted four per cent that was Trump's campaign pledge. Nevertheless, polls have shown that having the businessman in the White House has boosted the American people's confidence in the economy.

"In the surveys that really matters the most to Americans - the ones regarding their jobs and future prosperity - Trump’s presidency is scoring through the roof," says the Washington Times.

"So long as Trump continues to spur the economy and people’s confidence in it, what they think of him will fall to the wayside. For improving their economic prosperity is why they voted for Trump - and he will have delivered."

Supreme Court success

"This is one of Trump's clearest wins," says Reuters. The President kept his promise to select a like-minded successor to conservative Supreme Court judge Antonin Scalia, who died early last year, by nominating Neil Gorsuch. The Senate confirmed Gorsuch despite Democratic opposition, restoring a conservative majority on the court.

But "more important than the nomination of Neil Gorsuch, whose ideology was a 'one-for-one' swap for the late Antonin Scalia", the rumoured imminent retirement of Justice Anthony Kennedy would see Trump "nominating a full-fledged conservative" which would "likely change the balance of the court for decades fulfilling a long-held Republican dream", says Vanity Fair.

Should this happen, Trump "would become the new Reagan for many in the conservative movement", reports CNN’s Chris Cillizza.

"That perception would be almost entirely unaffected by any and all of the other things Trump has done or will do over the next three and a half years in office,” he added. "It would mean in the eyes of many conservatives that Trump would be the man who changed the legal course of the country."

Trump the campaigner

Another reason Trump staggers on is that he is still seen as an asset - or at least not yet a liability - for the Republican Party.

The President's fundraising prowess is "the engine of the Republican National Committee and a lifeline for every Republican planning to rely on the party for financial help during next year's congressional races", says CBS News.

Leaning heavily on Trump's appeal among small donors, the party has raised $75m (£57m) in the first six months of the year, more than double the amount raised by the Democratic National Committee by the same point of Barack Obama's first year.

More worrying still for Democrats "is the growing perception that Trump is unique to an extent that allows Republicans to campaign alongside him rather than with him", says Justin Webb in The Times.

As the Los Angeles Times reported in the wake of a "special election" victory for the Republicans: “Trump’s outsized persona makes even those Republicans who share his views seem more moderate, an important attribute to swing voters.”

Style over substance

The substance of Trump's time in power may actually prove to be irrelevant, says Politico's Michael Kruse.

None of his business failures have ever shaken his conviction that he is a success and so far, none of his political misfires appear to have had a humbling effect either, adds the journalist.

The attitude seems to be rubbing off on the electorate. "Voters have told me in hundreds of interviews across the country that they understand that negotiations take time on Capitol Hill (health care, the wall, the budget), that activist judges have always been a thorn in every president's side (travel restriction executive order and sanctuary cities)," says Salena Zito of the Washington Examiner.

"Their view of his accomplishments is optimistic; they are thrilled that he is constantly meeting with company executives, union and trade groups and car manufacturers. "They like his executive orders on regulations, Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court and his willingness to hold open discussion with the leaders of China and Egypt."