"I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter," said Democratic Party strategist James Carville in the 1990s. "But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody."
US government bonds, known as Treasuries, are "traditionally seen as a safe haven because they are guaranteed by the world's biggest economy", said The Guardian. But recent turmoil in the US bond market has undermined that status – and brought Donald Trump's tariff blitzkrieg to an abrupt halt.
What is the bond market? Government bonds are "essentially an IOU", said the BBC. Used to raise money for public spending, they are issued with different "maturity" rates, most commonly over two, 10 or 30 years. Investors receive a fixed annual return, known as a coupon rate, for the term of the bond, but they can also sell the bond. This is done mainly by financial institutions such as pension funds, as well as by central banks like the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
What are yields? Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs shook global confidence in the stability of the US economy. Investors began offloading their US government bonds, causing the value of the bonds to fall and their yield – the amount an investor can expect to make in proportion to what they paid – to increase.
And why does that matter? The yield on 10-year Treasuries – considered "one of the key rates in the economy", said CNN – shot up from 3.9% to 4.5% when the first of Trump's tariffs kicked in earlier this month. That represents a seismic shift, given that movements of 0.2% in either direction are a "big deal", said the BBC.
When yields on existing bonds are higher, the government has to offer higher coupon rates to attract buyers for new bonds to fund new spending. That increases the cost of borrowing, which in turn "underpins a range of other borrowing costs for everyday Americans", including mortgage rates and business loans for everything from small enterprises to large corporations, said CNN. Little wonder that Trump was "spooked" into backing down on his tariff plans, said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.
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