Thomas Tuchel has said England will follow Gareth Southgate’s shoot-out blueprint, should it come to penalties at this year’s World Cup. “We are prepared. We have a process; the players have a process,” he said. Southgate would decide on his penalty takers “well in advance, based on the training”, and vowed “to take full accountability” in public, so none of the players would need to take any blame, said the BBC.
With the knockout rounds of this summer’s tournament under way, the “spectre” of the shoot-out “hovers over every match”, said CBC. And, to try to gain an edge, many coaches are carefully analysing the psychology, mathematics and history of penalties.
Stakes up, scores down Research on penalty kicks has helped the world’s top teams “win more shoot-outs”, said Science News Explores. The pattern that “stands out” is that, “as the stakes go up, the chances of scoring go down”. Penalty kicks tend to be less successful towards the end of tournaments; and players are most likely to score if a goal means victory – and least likely if failure means defeat. For that reason, said a study in the Journal of Sports Sciences, a team’s five best penalty takers should walk up to the spot in reverse order of past success.
The received wisdom is that England are poor at taking penalties. Spain and the Netherlands actually have the worst record, losing four World Cup shoot-outs each; England (as well as Italy and France) have lost three, only winning their first with a 4-3 victory over Colombia in 2018, with Southgate in charge.
Risky targets Where you aim your penalty kick matters, according to analysis by Opta. Low and to the left augurs well: of 292 penalties taken in World Cup shoot-outs between 1982 and 2022, 41 were kicked in that direction, and 85% of them converted. The top third of the goal is a riskier target but, with precise execution, can bring even better rewards: of the 39 penalties hit high and on target, none were saved.
But the best-laid plans still fail. Germany’s penalty record at major tournaments had become the “stuff of legend”, said The Guardian. They had won six consecutive shoot-outs in all competitions, with their only previous defeat dating back to 1976. Then came penalties in their game against Paraguay on Monday, and the shock of the tournament so far. Three Germans missing in one shoot-out proves that, in this sporting lottery, anything can happen.
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