Perhaps the most surprising thing about Israel's aerial assault on Iranian military targets is how unsurprising last night's bombardment may have been. After years of pressure against Iran's nuclear program and threats of violence by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the attack is as much a culmination of longstanding antagonism as it is a new development. Now, as a clearer picture of this long-anticipated attack emerges, military experts have also begun looking ahead.
What did the commentators say? In the wake of Israel's attack, it's "likely" that Iran will make a "desperate run to nuclear breakout," said former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro at Foreign Affairs. President Donald Trump, in turn, will be "faced with a decision" that will "split his advisers and political base" — whether to "intervene militarily" after having spent years touting American isolationism.
"More conventional missile and drone attacks are expected" from Iran, said the Financial Times. Iran could also "turn to asymmetric warfare" such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, which it has threatened to do in the past. Before this week's attack, White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff warned Republican senators that Iran could "unleash a mass casualty response" to any Israeli attack, said Axios.
With a nuclear Iran "unacceptable" and a permanent negotiated nuclear deal "highly unlikely," a military assault on Tehran was the "only viable option left," said Matthew Kroenig, the senior director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center. Crucially, Iran is left with "few good options" for retaliation, given its proxies are "degraded" and Israel's Iron Dome is able to "demonstrably defend" against missile attacks. As such, this "will de-escalate quickly."
What next? Violence between Israel and Iran is "now likely to top the agenda" at the G7 summit scheduled to begin this weekend in Canada, said the Financial Times. With foreign leverage over Israel "limited," the question becomes whether nations like Canada, Britain and France, typically critical of the Netanyahu government, will "support any defense of Israel against Iranian retaliation."
For now, expect a "rapid cycle of escalation" between Israel and Iran, said CNBC. The strikes that have electrified the skies above both nations are "probably still the opening salvo," said Eurasia Group's Firas Maksad. And even if the Iranian military "quickly backs down," said Shapiro, Israel should brace for an "ongoing series of asymmetric attacks." |