After Israel's brazen Iran attack, what's next for the region and the world?

Photo composite illustration with scenes of bomb damage in Iranian cities, anti-Israel protests, Hossein Salami and Benjamin Netanyahu — Are Israel's attack and Iran's counter-strike a sign of wider violence to come?

(Image credit: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images)

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Israel's aerial assault on Iranian military targets is how unsurprising Thursday night's bombardment may have been. After years of pressure against Iran's embryonic nuclear program and threats of violence by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the attack is as much a culmination of longstanding antagonism as it is a new and sudden development. Now, as a clearer picture of this long-anticipated strike emerges, military experts have also begun looking ahead.

With regional tensions already high after years of war in Gaza, violence in Lebanon and revolution in Syria, Israel's latest assault may lead the Middle East into further turmoil. And a global order already roiled by President Donald Trump may struggle to respond to this latest disruption.

What did the commentators say?

In the wake of Israel's attack, it is "likely" that Iran will make a "desperate run to nuclear breakout," said former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Daniel Shapiro at Foreign Affairs. Trump, in turn, will be "faced with a decision" that will "split his advisers and political base" — whether to "intervene militarily" after having spent years touting American isolationism. Trump claimed he "not only knew about the strikes" beforehand, but that they are being used to "coerce the Iranians into his preferred bargaining position" for nuclear treaty talks with the U.S., said Responsible Statecraft.

The Week

Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

SUBSCRIBE & SAVE

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/jacafc5zvs1692883516.jpg

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters

From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.

"More conventional missile and drone attacks are expected" from Iran, said the Financial Times. Iran could also "turn to asymmetric warfare" such as closing the Strait of Hormuz, which it has threatened to do in the past. Before this week's attack, White House Special Envoy Steve Witkoff warned Republican senators that Iran could "unleash a mass casualty response" to any Israeli attack, said Axios. He highlighted concerns that "Israel's air defenses would not be able to handle an Iranian response involving hundreds of missiles."

With a nuclear Iran "unacceptable" and a permanent negotiated nuclear deal "highly unlikely," a military assault on Tehran was the "only viable option left," said Matthew Kroenig, the vice president and senior director of the Atlantic Council's Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Crucially, Iran is left with "few good options" for retaliation, given its proxies are "degraded" and Israel's Iron Dome is able to "demonstrably defend" against missile attacks. As such, this "will de-escalate quickly, like Trump's strike on Qasem Soleimani during his first term."

What next?

Violence between Israel and Iran is "now likely to top the agenda" at the G-7 summit scheduled to begin this weekend in Canada, said the Financial Times. With foreign leverage over Israel "limited," the question becomes whether nations like Canada, Britain and France, typically critical of the Netanyahu government, will "support any defense of Israel against Iranian retaliation." Meanwhile, Israel is "going alone" against Iran, said Daniel Mouton, a nonresident senior fellow at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. "Regardless" of what led Israel to launch its assault, the attack will ultimately "exacerbate preexisting tensions" between Israel and the United States.

For now, expect a "rapid cycle of escalation" between Israel and Iran, said CNBC. The attacks and drone counter-strikes that have electrified the skies above both nations are "probably still the opening salvo," said Firas Maksad, the managing director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at Eurasia Group. And even if the Iranian military "quickly backs down," said Shapiro at Foreign Affairs, Israel should still brace for an "ongoing series of asymmetric attacks, such as cyber operations and terrorist attacks against its embassies, travelers and businesses."

Explore More

Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.