Israel launched its war in Iran to keep the Islamic regime from acquiring a nuclear weapon. The question now is whether the regime will survive the onslaught at all, especially with President Donald Trump considering joining the fray.
A collapse of the Iranian government is unlikely, said NBC News. The regime is "unpopular, but it still has a tight grip on power," and there are no likely alternatives ready to seize power.
Still, the Israeli mission is "now moving inexorably toward regime change," said David Ignatius at The Washington Post. But Israel "can't bomb its way" to a new Iran. There's a hope, however, that this moment will offer Iranians a "chance to build something new."
Regime change gamble The war has "reopened the door" to political change in Iran, said Joseph Bosco at The Hill. While the conflict has "significantly" set back Iran's nuclear ambitions, it has also "weakened the domestic credibility and ruling power" of the Islamic government. Iran's regime has been "living on the edge" by supporting terrorism across the region for more than 40 years. "Let's push it over."
Israel's "endgame" might be a regime change in Iran, but "it's a gamble," said Amir Azimi at BBC News. Israel's attack is a "real threat to Iran's leadership," compounded by Iranian unhappiness with the country's "economy, the lack of freedom of speech, women's rights, and minority rights." If the government should fall, it's "unclear where such a process might lead." One possibility is a "descent into chaos" that would have a "massive impact across the Middle East."
'Auspicious' moment The "only lasting foundation" for long-term Middle East peace is "overthrowing the ayatollahs," said John Bolton, the former national security adviser, at The Wall Street Journal. In the current crisis, "divisions within the regime's leadership should be fostered and exploited," perhaps by offering "amnesty" to some current officials to induce them to "switch sides" and help create a "more consolidated opposition." America should offer support to aid that opposition. "The moment is auspicious."
The weakness of Iran's Islamic government has "encouraged attacks before," said The Economist. But with "no clear alternative," Iranians may wonder if they are "better off sticking with what they have." And an "entrenched regime" could end up even more of a threat to its "foes, neighbors and citizens." |