The United Arab Emirates denied last week Benjamin Netanyahu’s claim that he made a secret trip to the Gulf state during the Iran war to meet its president, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. But reports that the UAE has carried out its own strikes on Iran have renewed scrutiny of the Abraham Accords.
What are the Abraham Accords? This series of peace and cooperation agreements normalized relations between Israel and several Arab neighbors. The UAE and Bahrain signed the initial agreements, mediated by the U.S. on Sept. 15, 2020. And three months later, Sudan and Morocco joined the pact.
The UAE and Bahrain saw the Accords as strategically useful, but Arab public opinion remains strongly pro-Palestinian and opposed to closer relations with Israel. The Gaza war only exacerbated this, and then the Iran war created a sense that Israel was dragging the region into further instability.
Tehran’s “narrative” became that it could target countries that had signed the Accords “at will,” said The Jerusalem Post. This reinforced fears in Saudi Arabia, in particular, that alignment with Israel could make the kingdom a target.
Arab governments face a dilemma. Maintaining ties with Israel and its key ally, the U.S., risks a domestic backlash, but breaking ties could damage their security and economic interests.
How might they be updated? The original vision of the Abraham Accords — an expanding, economically integrated bloc across the Middle East — has become a significantly weaker prospect. Future agreements could involve cooler normalization, selective security cooperation and a slower expansion.
The rise of China has also encouraged players to consider other options. Expanding and strengthening the Accords creates a “network rooted in shared security interests and American sponsorship,” said conservative think tank the Hudson Institute. But Beijing has “spent the better part of two decades cultivating Middle Eastern influence,” with infrastructure finance, arms sales and “diplomatic mediation.”
What would an update look like? The Accords have “demonstrated resilience,” despite the “turbulence” of the recent years, including “growing criticism of Israel,” said Roy Binyamini, a former National Security Council official, at Ynet.
The U.S. and its Accords partners could offer a “vision for regional stability, economic growth, inter-faith tolerance and the containment of extremist influences.” Meanwhile, Israel could “leverage its experience” to help regional partners in “strengthening civilian defense systems.”
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