NBC's Steve Kornacki explains why Republicans are so disappointed with New Mexico special election loss

New Mexico held a special election in its 1st Congressional District on Tuesday to fill the U.S. House seat vacated by Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, and the Democratic candidate, state Rep. Melanie Stansbury, easily held the seat for her party. That wasn't much of a surprise, NBC News election analyst Steve Kornacki explained on MSNBC Tuesday night. President Biden won the district by 23 percentage points, and Haaland won it by 16 points.
"What Republicans were hoping for was not necessarily to win this — obviously they would have been thrilled to win this seat," Kornacki said. "What Republicans were really hoping for more realistically was for a race that was closer than these two numbers," 23 points and 16 points, and preferably "a single-digit race." Beating expectations, as the Democrats did in special elections running up to their 2018 blue wave, would be seen as a harbinger of a GOP House takeover in 2022.
With all of the expected vote counted, Stansbury beat the Republican candidate by 24.6 points. "Take these special elections with a grain of salt — there always sort of varying circumstances involved — but Republicans came into tonight hoping they could get a big talking point, hoping they could get some momentum that would point to a big midterm year for them," Kornacki said, "and it's Democrats who are going to be coming out of New Mexico 1 bragging."
The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.

Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
Peter has worked as a news and culture writer and editor at The Week since the site's launch in 2008. He covers politics, world affairs, religion and cultural currents. His journalism career began as a copy editor at a financial newswire and has included editorial positions at The New York Times Magazine, Facts on File, and Oregon State University.
-
September 1 editorial cartoons
Cartoons Monday’s political cartoons include Labor Day picnic, branding strategy, and more
-
What is Tony Blair's plan for Gaza?
Today's Big Question Former PM has reportedly been putting together a post-war strategy 'for the past several months'
-
When does autumn begin?
The Explainer The UK is experiencing a 'false autumn', as climate change shifts seasonal weather patterns
-
RFK Jr. names new CDC head as staff revolt
Speed Read Kennedy installed his deputy, Jim O'Neill, as acting CDC director
-
DC prosecutors lose bid to indict sandwich thrower
Speed Read Prosecutors sought to charge Sean Dunn with assaulting a federal officer
-
White House fires new CDC head amid agency exodus
Speed Read CDC Director Susan Monarez was ousted after butting heads with HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over vaccines
-
DOGE put Social Security data at risk, official says
Speed Read DOGE workers made the personal information of hundreds of millions of Americans vulnerable to identity theft
-
Court rejects Trump suit against Maryland US judges
Speed Read Judge Thomas Cullen, a Trump appointee, said the executive branch had no authority to sue the judges
-
Trump expands National Guard role in policing
Speed Read The president wants the Guard to take on a larger role in domestic law enforcement
-
Trump says he's firing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook
Speed Read The move is likely part of Trump's push to get the central bank to cut interest rates
-
Abrego released from jail, faces Uganda deportation
Speed Read The wrongly deported Kilmar Abrego García is expected to be detained at an ICE check-in and deported to Uganda