Dementia cases to double by 2050 amid aging populations

While it has long been known that dementia rates are increasing worldwide, new research shows the problem may be more dire than once thought. Dementia cases could double by the middle of the century, with millions of people potentially at risk as the global community gets older.

What did the study find?

There were an estimated 11.3 million people diagnosed with dementia in 2023, and that figure is expected to jump to 24.7 million diagnoses in 2050, according to research published in the journal JAMA Neurology. This estimate, which would be a 118.5% increase, is based on “data from 38,418 people across 22 population-based studies spanning 18 countries and territories on six continents,” said Australia’s University of New South Wales (UNSW), which helmed the study. Overall, the rate of dementia diagnosis was found to be 9.7 new cases per 1,000 people.

The study also “found dementia incidence was higher among women than men and substantially higher in low- and middle-income countries than in high-income countries,” said UNSW. This marks a change from prior research, as a large part of “what is known about dementia has historically come from high-income countries, despite some of the greatest future increases being expected in lower-resource settings.”

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Can anything be done about this?

The results of the study “highlight the growing need for dementia prevention, diagnosis and care as populations age,” said USA Today, especially as dementia “already affects more than 57 million people worldwide.” Dementia is “not a future problem. It’s an accelerating epidemic crisis that demands immediate attention,” Dr. Liron Sinvani, the director of research and innovation at the Northwell Institute for Healthy Aging, said to HealthDay.

There is some good news on the research front. For the “first time, we can compare dementia incidence across a geographically diverse group of populations using the same statistical approach, giving us a clearer picture of where and among whom new cases are occurring,” lead study author Dr. Ashleigh Vella told UNSW. Understanding risk factors among different groups will be “critical” in developing a prevention and care response to “populations facing the greatest future risk.”