Will Nigel Farage return to split the Tories once again?

Former Ukip and Brexit Party leader Nigel Farage is believed to be considering a return to frontline politics as immigration and Brexit return to the top of the political agenda.

The current GB News host was instrumental in forcing the Tory party to call a referendum on EU membership and has been hailed as the “Godfather of the movement” by Brexit-backing The Telegraph.

He recently told the Sunday Express that “confidence in the Tory party has collapsed” and that the recent surge in support for his former Reform UK party could be the “beginning of the next insurgency”. With the Tory party already facing dire poll numbers, the return of their political nemesis could have a negative impact on the party’s election prospects under Rishi Sunak.

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How likely is Farage to return?

Farage is currently focused on his media career, hosting a nightly politics show on GB News. He does not take an active role in Reform UK, which he founded as the Brexit Party in 2018, “but as the party sees a modest uptick in the polls and an apparent increase in membership, Farage has become increasingly outspoken in his opposition to the Tories,” said i news.

The paper reported “allies believe” he is “preparing another political comeback in a bid to take advantage of the Conservatives’ divisions over Brexit and migration”.

Anger over illegal Channel crossings which have pushed immigration back up to the top of the political agenda, and concern that the Tories could seek a closer relationship with the EU, will have Farage “already licking his lips” said The Spectator.

Responding to reports the UK could purse a Swiss-style Brexit arrangement with the EU, he tweeted “this level of betrayal will never be forgiven” and hinting at a return to frontline politics if such a deal were pursued, told The Sun he was “not ruling anything out”.

“Some will dismiss the notion of a Farage return as far-fetched,” said The Telegraph, “but there is no doubt that the combination of very real voter anger, combined with the failures to tackle illegal immigration, has created the right conditions for a disciplined party of the populist Right to succeed.”

What would it mean for the Tory party?

Already facing electoral oblivion at the next election, the emergence of a pro-Brexit, anti-immigration alternative would be devastating for the Conservative party’s slim chances of clinging on to power.

Reform UK’s current leader, Richard Tice, has already ruled out standing down candidates in Tory seats at the next election as the party did in 2019, and has now “stepped up a gear” in his mission to “kill off the Conservative Party” with a series of pledges to rescue the NHS, The Express reported.

With Reform UK having seen a surge in members joining from the Tory party after the resignation of Liz Truss, a recent YouGov poll put support for the party up four points to 9% nationally.

“The numbers represent a blow to [Rishi] Sunak”, said The Telegraph. “The Prime Minister will want to secure the backing of all right-of-centre voters as he tries to reel in Labour, and a surging Reform UK will make turning Tory fortunes around significantly more challenging.”

Were Farage, a darling of the right, to return as leader the trickle of disillusioned Tory voters to Reform UK could turn into a torrent that could sweep the party from power and into the political wilderness for years.

How can the Tories stop Farage?

In a bid to stop Reform UK growing in popularity, a senior Tory told The Express he was in no doubt about how to tackle the electoral threat.

Craig Mackinlay, a former Ukip deputy leader who became the Conservative MP for South Thanet when he beat Farage in the 2015 election, warned that the likes of Reform UK emerge when mainstream parties allow a “vacuum to develop”.

“Deal with small boats. If we do our day job the problem goes away,” he said.

Yet as public opinion shifts away from Brexit the real beneficiary of a Farage second act would be Labour and the Lib Dems.

“Demographics suggest a declining market for Farage’s brand of reactionary right-wing politics”, said the New Statesman. “All the polling we have suggests that the wind has changed, the Tories are facing annihilation, and the wider right irrelevance. And they’ve just spent years trashing the very notion of loser’s consent. No wonder they’re all looking so scared.”

Farage himself seems unconcerned by the prospect. When asked recently whether Reform UK could deny the Conservatives a majority and allow Labour to take power if it ran in every seat he replied:

“So what? What difference would that make?”