Rishi Sunak: will culture war win election?

Get ready for “a long, dirty election campaign”, said Andrew Grice in The Independent.

Until recently, Rishi Sunak has traded on his image as a hard-working, courteous problem solver. But with the Tories trailing 20 points behind Labour, party leaders have decided to take the gloves off.

‘Not all cynical electioneering’

Their unexpected victory in the Uxbridge by-election was the launchpad for a more aggressive approach, led by Sunak, focused on emotive issues such as irregular migration, eco-activism and trans rights.

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With reference to the small boats, in July Sunak tweeted: “The Labour Party, a subset of lawyers, criminal gangs – they’re all on the same side, propping up a system of exploitation that profits from getting people to the UK illegally.” Some of the PM’s colleagues believe that this more populist tone doesn’t suit him, but the change of tack has “pleased right-wing Tories clamouring for a ‘real conservative’ government”.

It’s not all cynical electioneering, said Dan Hodges in The Mail on Sunday. The reality is that some of the issues that “elements of the liberal Left frame as ‘The Culture War’, in order to suppress debate about them, cannot be dodged”. Voters want their borders controlled. They want their highways kept clear of “eco-zealots”. They want women’s safe spaces protected. If ministers genuinely address these concerns, voters will reward them. If, however, they seek simply to whip up divisions in a bid to cling to power, they’ll be punished at the ballot box.

‘Waging culture wars will rebound’

Waging culture wars will rebound on the Tories, agreed Martha Gill in The Guardian. Apart from anything, it will alienate many of their own supporters. Recent polls suggest that the net-zero agenda, for instance, enjoys wide support among Tory voters: about 73% of them back the 2050 deadline.

“Wedge issues” can be a very effective political tool, said John Burn-Murdoch in FT. The Tories have used them to their advantage many times, never more so than in the 2019 election, when their pledge to “get Brexit done” helped them trounce Labour. But the successful deployment of a wedge issue depends on two things. “First, the issue must be seen as one of the most important facing the country. Second, the electorate must have a clear belief that the party driving the wedge also has the solution.” Neither of those conditions apply to the small boats issue.

Immigration ranks in fourth or fifth place in voters’ priorities in recent polls, far behind the cost-of-living crisis, the NHS and the wider economy – and voters trust Labour more than the Tories on the issue. By fighting dirty, the Conservatives may succeed merely in driving a wedge between themselves and the electorate.