Who will win the general election? The odds and polls

Recent surveys suggest Labour is on course to beat Tony Blair's 1997 landslide

Photo collage of Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak with a graphic chart in the background
(Image credit: Illustrated / Getty Images)

Polls, bookmakers and most Westminster insiders believe Labour is on course for a seismic election victory when the country goes to the polls on 4 July. 

The Conservatives are "starting the campaign a long way behind" the Labour Party, said BBCsenior political analyst Peter Barnes. "In fact, that's been pretty much the picture for the last 12 months, with Labour consistently polling above 40%," he said. The broadcaster's poll tracker has Labour on 45%, a 22% lead over the Conservatives after Sunak announced the election yesterday.

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 Sorcha Bradley is a writer at The Week and a regular on “The Week Unwrapped” podcast. She worked at The Week magazine for a year and a half before taking up her current role with the digital team, where she mostly covers UK current affairs and politics. Before joining The Week, Sorcha worked at slow-news start-up Tortoise Media. She has also written for Sky News, The Sunday Times, the London Evening Standard and Grazia magazine, among other publications. She has a master’s in newspaper journalism from City, University of London, where she specialised in political journalism.