Labour's brewing welfare rebellion

Keir Starmer could be facing the first serious challenge to his authority, after more than 100 of his own MPs have signalled support for an amendment that would effectively sink his government's welfare-reform bill.

Thirteen Labour committee chairs have tabled what's known as a "reasoned amendment" to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill, calling for a pause in reforms that would make welfare savings of £5 billion a year by tightening the rules around disability benefits. So far, 108 Labour MPs – enough to overturn Starmer's majority – have signed the amendment, which would, if voted through next week, halt the passage of the entire bill through the House of Commons.

Why are so many Labour MPs rebelling?

The recent partial rowback on winter-fuel payments was seen by Labour backbenchers "as a sign that the government is listening to their concerns", said LabourList. But many are far "more concerned" about the proposed eligibility restrictions to personal independence payments (PIPs) for those with disabilities, and the effect they could have on their constituents – and their party's election prospects.

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Dissent among backbenchers has been growing since the plans were first announced earlier this year. Last week, The Guardian reported signs of a swelling rebellion against the reforms and, on Thursday, Lewisham MP and government whip Vicky Foxcroft resigned her frontbench post in protest.

Things then "came to a head" on Monday evening in a "fiery meeting" between the Parliamentary Labour Party and Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall, said The Independent. Several MPs are apparently "privately claiming it could end up with Sir Keir being forced out as leader".

What do the rebels want?

Rebels have "coalesced around two points", said PoliticsHome: "a full impact assessment" of the PIP cuts, and "movement" on the tightening up of the scoring system used to evaluate whether claimants qualify for PIP support or not.

The problem for many Labour MPs runs deeper, however. There's confusion and anger at the government's seeming "all pain, no gain" approach to balancing the books, choosing to spend "political capital" in places that cause "maximum pain" but "generates the least return", said The Economist.

The proposed £5 billion cut to welfare benefits are "deep enough to upset a base which sees any reduction in disability benefit as a sin" yet "nowhere near enough to placate bearish investors who see welfare spending going up for ever".

What will happen?

Cabinet Office secretary Pat McFadden told BBC Breakfast today that the government would "keep talking to people between now and the vote", but that "there is no escaping the need for reform of the welfare system".

Starmer seems to be preparing to "clamp down on the rebels by forcing them to show up" to next week's vote, said The Telegraph. Backbenchers opposed to the bill will not be allowed sit out the showdown by arranging to be absent from Parliament.

It's thought that MPs who are considering voting against the government have been "threatened with losing the whip and even, according to two sources, deselection", said The Independent.

It's a "complete nightmare for Starmer, who is facing quite a remarkable challenge to his authority after just 12 months in power", said Politico London Playbook. "If the government can't get these cuts through with a 156-seat majority, particularly with loads of young MPs hungry for a ministerial career, then what hope does it have for future fiscal consolidation efforts?"