Tory manifesto: will new pledges shift election trajectory?

Rishi Sunak pledged billions of pounds in tax cuts as he launched the Conservative Party's election manifesto, hoping to narrow a 21-point poll deficit. 

The policy document promised a further 2p cut in employees' National Insurance contributions by April 2027, taking the rate to 6p, which is half what it was at the start of 2024. There are also plans to scrap the main rate of self-employed National Insurance by the end of the parliament.

Other notable items in the 76-page manifesto, as announced by Sunak in an op-ed in The Telegraph last night, included a "new and improved Help to Buy Scheme", as well as a pledge to make the £425,000 stamp duty threshold permanent for first-time buyers. There was also a two-year scheme to let landlords sell homes to tenants without paying capital gains tax.

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Ahead of the launch, Labour leader Keir Starmer accused Sunak's party of creating a "Jeremy Corbyn-style manifesto" – a reference to Starmer's predecessor, who he campaigned for in the 2019 general election – where "anything you want can go in it, none of it is costed, it's a recipe for more of the same".

What did the commentators say?

Beyond a promise to abolish the main rate of self-employed National Insurance over the course of a parliament, there wasn't much that was unexpected in the Conservative manifesto, said the BBC's chief political correspondent Henry Zeffman. 

That's partly because Sunak has announced a plethora of pledges over the first three weeks of the election campaign, in the hope that "by unleashing a blizzard of policies" ahead of the launch he "might be able to seize the momentum and change swing voters' minds right away". 

But as the D-Day anniversary row showed, "the campaign does not seem to have quite panned out like that". Overall, however, "it's fair to say this manifesto is Sunak's", added Zeffman. "If it succeeds, he will take the political credit. If it fails, his internal critics will rush to pile the blame onto him."

Sunak faced last-minute calls to add new tax cuts and a tougher migration policy to the manifesto after early drafts "provoked disquiet" over the lack of "big-ticket pledges" that could narrow the polls with the Labour Party, said Bloomberg's Alex Wickham. Conservative backbenchers were hoping that Sunak's aides were holding back other policy announcements to "spring a surprise", but little new policy emerged in the manifesto launch. 

There was also much frustration over Sunak's determination to propose a third National Insurance cut, "after two at the last two fiscal events failed to move opinion polls". One Tory aide claimed that "repeating the move was the definition of insanity", said Wickham. 

Sunak's manifesto was "substantial by any measure" and "designed to cut across every demographic", said Steven Swinford, political editor of The Times. But serious questions remain over whether it will be enough to "shift the dial". 

While nearly all the measures announced are "individually popular with voters" there is no evidence that they are "translating to increased support for the prime minister and the Conservatives" with Labour maintaining their 20-point lead in the polls. "The lack of any surprises in the manifesto will do little to allay concerns within the party."

What next?

Conservative right-wingers are reportedly planning to present Sunak with a "rebel manifesto", which includes demands for tougher action on immigration and human rights law before the election if the manifesto released today "falls flat", said The Guardian.

Prominent party figures, including Suella Braverman and Robert Jenrick, "are said by Tory insiders to be among those waiting to see how the manifesto is received by the public before they act". One former cabinet minister told the paper that it was "plausible" that an alternative manifesto could be published in the coming days with tougher positions on tax and immigration. "We'll just have to see what emerges," they said.

However, sources close to Braverman and Jenrick told The Times that while it was well known that both former ministers wanted the party to take a "tougher" line on these issues, they would not derail the election campaign. "No one wants to be the person who gets the blame for undermining the party so close to polling day," said one source speaking to the paper. "It is just not happening."

Meanwhile, Labour frontbencher Jonathan Ashworth described the Tory manifesto as a "desperate wishlist" and the "most expensive panic in history". The shadow paymaster general told Sky News the manifesto was a "set of commitments [Sunak] cannot fund, from savings he cannot find because the money is simply not there after 14 years of the Conservatives".