Brexit deal: can Rishi Sunak win over the DUP?
The PM visits Belfast seeking Unionist support for changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol
Rishi Sunak has travelled to Northern Ireland today to start a weekend of talks aimed at pushing through a new agreement on the Northern Ireland Protocol.
The outline of a deal has reportedly been agreed with the EU, but the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) is yet to give its blessing. Its leadership insists that Northern Ireland must not be legally separate from the rest of the UK.
Sunak met leaders of both the DUP and Sinn Féin at a hotel near Belfast today in an attempt to secure their backing for his plan. Later, he will travel to Germany to discuss the revised protocol with other EU leaders.
Subscribe to The Week
Escape your echo chamber. Get the facts behind the news, plus analysis from multiple perspectives.
Sign up for The Week's Free Newsletters
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
From our morning news briefing to a weekly Good News Newsletter, get the best of The Week delivered directly to your inbox.
In a sign that a deal is “imminent”, the EU summoned diplomats from its 27 member states to a briefing on the issue this morning, said The Guardian. James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, has also been holding talks with European Commission vice-president Maroš Šefčovič.
What did the papers say?
“Is a deal done? From what I hear, not quite,” the BBC’s Brussels correspondent Jessica Parker tweeted.
Two main “stumbling blocks” remain: the movement of goods, and how any disputes will be resolved – with or without the European Court of Justice (ECJ).
“All of a sudden 2023 feels like 2018,” said Finn McRedmond in The New Statesman. “Once again, the tricky constitutional status of Northern Ireland sits at the centre of the debate.”
Since Brexit negotiations began, the Irish border has played an outsized role. All sides committed to preserving cross-border trade and travel, but that principle set up a conflict between Unionists, who wanted equally free trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, and the EU, which wanted to protect its internal market from goods arriving from the UK.
The proposed solution was the Northern Ireland Protocol, agreed as part of the post-Brexit deal in December 2020. It introduced some checks for goods moving between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.
The deal now being discussed “is expected to include a settlement on an elimination of some checks on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland and a new dispute resolution mechanism not involving the European court of justice (ECJ) in the first instance,” said The Guardian.
“It is believed that the deal on the table includes a fudge removing the EU’s powers to go directly to the ECJ for a decision if it feels a trade rule has been breached.” There would be “an arbitration panel involving Northern Irish and EU judges to be created as the first port of call in any dispute”.
In terms of goods, “at the heart of the negotiated deal is a system of ‘red’ and ‘green’ lanes that allow goods travelling only into Northern Ireland and not then on to Ireland to face no customs checks”, said The Telegraph.
The question then is whether any of this will satisfy the DUP, which has set out seven strict conditions that must be met by any deal before it returns to Stormont’s power-sharing government.
There is “confidence on the UK side” that the DUP’s conditions have been met, but there were also concerns that until today the DUP had not been sufficiently kept in the loop on what the proposals involved, The Telegraph reported.
What next?
If the prime minister succeeds in getting support from the DUP, the deal would be presented to the cabinet on Tuesday then set out in the Commons, according to an earlier report by The Times. A command paper detailing the agreement would be published later that day.
It seems that Sunak would be able to get any new deal through the House of Commons, “given that Keir Starmer has pledged Labour support for a deal”, said The Telegraph. However, there is a risk of a Tory rebellion. The Eurosceptic European Research Group (ERG) of Conservative MPs continues to say that Sunak’s “solution to the impasse will weaken Brexit”, said The New Statesman.
“Many eyes” will be on Sunak’s meeting with the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, in Munich this weekend, tweeted the BBC’s Parker.
“The political tour that Rishi Sunak and his ministers are going on may be read as the kind of end-game choreography you’d expect to see before an announcement,” she said. But it could also mean that Sunak is still aiming to use today’s talks with the DUP to try to “press the EU for final concessions”.
We might be nearing a deal, but “this is politics and Brexit… it could all still fall apart”.
Create an account with the same email registered to your subscription to unlock access.
Sign up for Today's Best Articles in your inbox
A free daily email with the biggest news stories of the day – and the best features from TheWeek.com
-
Major League Baseball is facing an epidemic of pitcher's injuries
Under the Radar Many insiders are blaming the pitch clock for the rise in injuries — but the league is not so sure
By Justin Klawans, The Week US Published
-
8 movie musicals that prove the screen can share the stage
The Week Recommends The singing and dancing, bigger than life itself
By Scott Hocker, The Week US Published
-
2024 Mother's Day Gift Guide
The Week Recommends A present for every mom
By Catherine Garcia, The Week US Published
-
Is the Gaza war tearing US university campuses apart?
Today's Big Question Protests at Columbia University, other institutions, pit free speech against student safety
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Is there a peaceful way forward for Israel and Iran?
Today's Big Question Tehran has initially sought to downplay the latest Israeli missile strike on its territory
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published
-
How could the Supreme Court's Fischer v. US case impact the other Jan 6. trials including Trump's?
Today's Big Question A former Pennsylvania cop might hold the key to a major upheaval in how the courts treat the Capitol riot — and its alleged instigator
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
Is the next cold war a drone-swarm race between US and China?
Today's Big Question Both global superpowers are building up their capacity for surging robotic warfare. What happens next is anyone's guess.
By Rafi Schwartz, The Week US Published
-
How powerful is Iran?
Today's big question Islamic republic is facing domestic dissent and 'economic peril' but has a vast military, dangerous allies and a nuclear threat
By Harriet Marsden, The Week UK Published
-
Why are Republicans trying to change Nebraska's Electoral College vote?
Today's Big Question It's a chance for Donald Trump to block Joe Biden's path to re-election
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Is it time to end arms sales to Israel?
Today's Big Question Democrats urge restrictions following World Kitchen convoy deaths
By Joel Mathis, The Week US Published
-
Have we entered the age of AI warfare?
Today's Big Question Israeli military used AI to create 'kill lists' of suspected Hamas militants, say local media
By Sorcha Bradley, The Week UK Published