Why are China and Japan fighting over Taiwan?

China and Japan exchanged angry words in recent days after Japan’s new prime minister said her country would regard an attack on Taiwan as an “existential threat” to security in the region. The two countries are in a “furious diplomatic spat” over the comments, said NBC News. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s “unusually explicit" remarks suggested Chinese military action against Taiwan could force an armed response from Tokyo.

Japanese leaders have usually been vague about their commitments to Taiwan, just 70 miles from their country's territory. But China regards the self-ruled island of Taiwan as its possession, and officials responded with angry demands for a Japanese retraction. “The dirty neck that sticks itself in must be cut off,” said Xue Jian, a Chinese diplomatic official, on X. (The post was later deleted.)

Other Chinese leaders were less colorful but still pointed in their comments, said Reuters. Japan would suffer a “crushing defeat” if it intervened in Taiwan, said Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin. The grievances are rooted in a long and contentious history, said Reuters. There is “ongoing tension” between the two countries lingering from the Japanese invasion of China during World War II.

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What did the commentators say?

Some observers see China’s angry response to Takaichi as a return to its “wolf warrior” days of the early 2020s, Jessie Yeung said at CNN. That is when Beijing officials would “hit back directly — and often colorfully” at criticisms of their country. That aggressive approach receded as Communist officials sought to “win back lost goodwill among Western nations.” But there is a “significant streak of anti-Japanese sentiment” in China, and the prime minister’s comments have prompted “state media and other prominent voices” to fan outrage against Tokyo.

The dispute illustrates the “essence of Japan’s strategic dilemma,” said Zheng Zhihua at The Diplomat. Tokyo wants to “signal deterrence” and send a message of solidarity with its U.S. ally. But it must also do so within the “constitutional limits of its pacifist defense policy.” Japan has also attempted to balance its relations with China with “unofficial” contacts with Taiwan, a “dual track” policy that allows it to “avoid direct confrontation with Beijing while supporting Taiwan’s stability.” The question now is whether Japan can maintain its “maneuvering space” or if the spat “hardens public attitudes on both sides.”

What next?

China “escalated its diplomatic feud” on Sunday, said The New York Times. It sent ships to patrol uninhabited islands that “both countries claim” while also warning Chinese students in Japan about unspecified threats to their safety. On Monday, Japan said it scrambled warplanes after detecting a suspected Chinese drone near the island of Yonaguni, said CBS News. “We are trying not to escalate the situation,” said one Japanese official.

The growing tensions have raised fears of a “rupture in Japan-China ties,” said The Japan Times. There may be more escalation to come. Beijing is prepared to “carry out substantial countermeasures against Japan,” a social media account run by state media said on Sunday.