Is China preparing to invade Taiwan?

China's attempt to conquer Taiwan by force "could be imminent", US Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth has warned.

"There's no reason to sugarcoat it: the threat China poses is real," he said, speaking at the 2025 Shangri-la Dialogue defence summit in Singapore. Beijing is "credibly preparing to potentially use military force to alter the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific". And, "to be clear: any attempt by Communist China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in devastating consequences for the Indo-Pacific and the world."

Beijing views Taiwan as a rogue breakaway territory to be brought back under control, by force if necessary, making it arguably "the most dangerous place on Earth", said The Economist.

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How likely is an invasion?

Experts "disagree about the likelihood and timing of a Chinese invasion", said the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

China has been engaging in "unprecedented aggression and military modernisation", Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of US Indo-Pacific Command, told the US Congressional Armed Services Committee in April. Underscoring the seriousness of this escalation, he said China's drills around Taiwan are "not just exercises – they are rehearsals".

While "alarming", said the Atlantic Council, this "unfortunately reflects a broader, consistent trend" of escalating activities by the People's Liberation Army (PLA), including persistent crossings of the Taiwan Strait's median line.

Data from Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence found that sorties across the Taiwanese-declared dividing line between Taiwan and China have increased from 953 incidents in 2021 to 3,070 in 2024.

There are other indications Beijing is preparing to move on Taiwan. China has been stockpiling record amounts of gold, which could be part of a strategy to defend itself from Western sanctions in the event of an attack on Taiwan. It has also been building a solid legal ground for a potential invasion, aiming to frame the attack as a legitimate internal matter.

"This will help the country to delay a collective security and economic response from the West," said The Sun.

When could an invasion happen?

Paparo told members of Congress that the PLA are "stretching their legs" to meet President Xi Jinping's military readiness goal of being capable of taking Taiwan by force by 2027. That year is seen as "magical" because it marks the centenary of what was to become the People's Liberation Army, said Robert Fox in London's The Standard.

"Others believe 2049 is a critical date," said the CFR, as Xi Jinping has "emphasised that unification with Taiwan is essential to achieving what he calls the Chinese Dream, which sees China's great-power status restored by 2049".

How could an invasion start?

Chinese military drills last year surrounded Taiwan's main island with joint exercises by all branches of the PLA and "for the first time, the increasingly militarised Coast Guard", said The Guardian.

In January, Naval News first reported the construction of new amphibious barges at Guangzhou Shipyard, in southern China.

These new barge-like Shuiqiao ships are potentially a game-changer for Beijing and provide "insight into China's integration of its military, paramilitary and civilian operations – and its plans for a potential invasion", said The Guardian.

The barges feature bridges that could be used to transport tanks and supplies over previously uncrossable land, said The Telegraph, giving them multiple fronts for an invasion and "thinning out" Taiwan's line of defence.

The likely strategy is to overwhelm Taiwan with a massive attack with little warning.

That would mean in the early hours of a Chinese invasion, the narrow strait separating the island from the mainland would likely be "transformed into a ferocious battlefield", said Business Insider. Aside from deploying more traditional weapons such as missiles or warships, "vast fleets of unmanned aerial and naval drones will likely darken the skies and hide beneath waves, bringing with them a deadly threat that Taiwan and its allies are ill-prepared to counter". During Joe Biden's presidency, the US strategy to counter this – dubbed "Hellscape" – hinged on deploying thousands of new drones that would swarm the Taiwan Strait and keep China's military busy until more help could arrive.

How would it play out?

Chinese action against Taiwan would be an "act of war that sparks a global crisis", said The Wall Street Journal. "It would provoke a military response by Taiwan, force President Trump to decide whether the US military should help defend the island, disrupt global trade and impel European nations to impose punishing sanctions on Beijing."

If a conflict were to break out it would be "a catastrophe", said the Economist. This is first because of "the bloodshed in Taiwan", but also because of the risk of "escalation between two nuclear powers", namely the US and China.

Beijing massively outguns Taiwan, with estimates from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showing that China spent about 23 times more on its military in 2021. The PLA also boasts more than two million active soldiers. The US is bound by the Taiwan Relations Act to "provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character" and discourage China from using force or coercion to achieve its goals regarding the island. This could see Washington drawn into any conflict – although there is growing scepticism in Taipei that Trump would intervene militarily in the event of a full-blown Chinese attack.

That means any invasion "would be one of the most dangerous and consequential events of the 21st century", said The Times, and "would make the Russian attack on Ukraine look like a sideshow by comparison".