Could Taiwan’s military defences withstand a Chinese invasion?

Taiwan’s military is fundamentally “not suited” to defend against a possible Chinese invasion, a leading US research institute has concluded.

A report by the RAND Corporation released last week stated that the island nation, which China claims sovereignty over, does not spend enough on defence, and what it does goes on “antiquated systems”.

While it said Taiwan’s leaders generally believe Chinese efforts to incorporate the island into its political system will be attempted through economic coercion rather than military action, it insisted an invasion still “poses an existential risk”.

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How strong is the Taiwanese military?

Taiwan’s military is outnumbered by China’s in almost every department, said First Post.

While Beijing has two million soldiers, Taiwan has 170,000; China’s 5,250 tanks far outnumber Taiwan’s 1,110. Taiwan’s air force has 741 jets, significantly lower than China’s, which has 3,285 aircraft. On the seas, China has the world’s largest navy with a fleet strength of 777, with Taiwan boasting just 117 vessels.

The declining birthrate in Taiwan could cause “major challenges” to the island’s military recruitment, said The Guardian. In a report to Taiwan’s parliament, the interior ministry said the number of new conscripts in 2022 would be the lowest in a decade.

Unsurprisingly, then, Taiwan is looking to “steeply increase its military budget” and defence spending in response to a growing threat of aggression from China, said the Financial Times.

Does Taiwan have any advantages?

The only area where Taiwan has the upper hand is in reservists: it has 1.5 million, while China has 500,000, according to First Post. Also, in any conflict with China, Taiwan would have “defender’s advantage”, said Breaking Defense, because “it does not need to win outright, it merely needs to deny China a quick victory”.

Taiwan would be reliant on “natural defences” – its rugged coastline and rough sea – and has plans to “throw a thousand tanks at the beachhead” in the event of a Chinese invasion. Such a scenario could result in “brutal tank battles” that would “decide the outcome”, according to Forbes.

Yet Taiwan’s “great defensive strength, its geographical position as an island separated from the mainland by a stormy, 100-mile wide strait, is also its great weakness”, said The Times. Unlike Ukraine, which has long land borders with five, well-disposed European countries, the paper argued that Taiwan is “dependent for resupply and rearmament on sea and air”.

What backing does Taiwan have?

Taiwan’s position – and the fact it is formally recognised by only 13 countries around the world – means it is overly reliant on support from the US, which the FT described as its “only quasi-ally”.

https://www.ft.com/content/f7922fdb-01bf-4ffd-9c5c-79f15468aa71

While the two countries have a pact dating back to the 1954 Sino-American Mutual Defence Treaty, Washington has historically maintained a policy of “strategic ambiguity” over its plans if Taiwan is invaded. But as Chinese aggression has intensified so has US rhetoric and backing, culminating last year in President Joe Biden reiterating the US’s “commitment” to defending Taiwan.

On Friday, the Biden administration announced it would provide a further $345 million in military aid, including “defence articles”, military education and training. It comes on top of the billions of dollars of military aid Washington has already approved in recent years, including an $8 billion deal to deliver 66 F-16 fighter jets by 2026.

Al Jazeera said that “Biden’s backing of Taiwan and the independence-leaning administration of Tsai Ing-wen has added to mounting tensions between Washington and Beijing”. China has accused the US of turning the island into a “powder keg”.

Taiwan’s other major ally in the region, Japan, has also signalled the need to protect the democratic island nation, although it would be unlikely to engage in open warfare.

As for the UK, while it has “no formal defence ties with Taiwan”, noted veteran foreign policy and defence writers Mark Curtis and Richard Norton-Taylor at Declassified UK, the government has struck a notably more bullish tone of late, meaning any move against Taiwan would likely be met with a strong response.

Will China just use diplomacy?

During the past 18 months, China has “significantly” ramped up its “intimidation of Taiwan”, said CNN. But, analysts told the broadcaster, Chinese president Xi Jinping’s “stated preference for a peaceful takeover of the island” should be “taken at face value – at least for now”.

A “hot war” remains “unlikely in the foreseeable future”, said James Char, associate research fellow at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies in Singapore.

Instead, said the FT, the Chinese military is waging what defence experts call a “grey zone campaign: it is increasing its presence closer to Taiwan one step at a time, yet all the while remaining below the threshold of what could be considered an act of war”.

These so-called “salami-slicing tactics” represent a “very different, more gradual threat”, said the paper. China is “slowly changing the status quo, one small step at a time, and could eventually deprive Taiwan of the ability to defend itself”.