What happens if tensions between India and Pakistan boil over?

As the two nuclear-armed neighbors rattle their sabers in the wake of a terrorist attack on the contested Kashmir region, experts worry that the worst might be yet to come

Photo composite illustration of Narendra Modi, Shehbaz Sharif, Muslim protestors, an Indian paramilitary soldier and a map of the Kashmir region
The 'scale and targeting' of the Kashmir attack make it 'all but assured' that India will respond 'with muscle'
(Image credit: Illustration by Stephen Kelly / Getty Images)

India and Pakistan inched closer to overt conflict last week after an attack in the Indian-administered Kashmir region left dozens dead and set the two nuclear-armed neighboring nations on the latest collision course. India has threatened to withdraw from the treaty that provides water to the bulk of Pakistan, prompting that country to close its airspace to Indian flights. As both countries continue baring their teeth at one another, where might all this hostility lead?

What did the commentators say?

In particular, India's threat to withdraw from the Indus Waters Treaty signifies a "rupture" with "huge symbolic and strategic weight," The New York Times said. Within Pakistan, there is "growing concern" as various Indian figures "hint at the possibility of military strikes," with some Pakistani analysts warning that the "current confrontation could intensify beyond the 2019 standoff." While Pakistan has denied allegations that its government may have played a role in the Kashmir attack, the incident fits a "pattern of terrorist attacks occurring on Indian soil," when the Pakistani military "feels excluded from the geopolitical conversation," said Manjari Chatterjee Miller, a senior fellow for India, Pakistan, and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations. Given the Trump administration's apparent closeness with India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, current events "could have given such an impetus."

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In Kashmir, "thousands have flocked to the streets" to protest the violence, while business owners "express concerns" over the commercial impact of the attacks on the "popular tourist destination during peak season," CNN said. At the same time, several anti-Pakistan protests have "erupted" in various Indian cities, raising fears of "fueling anti-Kashmiri and anti-Muslim sentiment."

What next?

For India, "military retaliation, at some point in the coming days, is a real possibility," said South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman at Newsweek. The "scale and targeting" of the Kashmir attack make it "all but assured" that India will respond "with muscle."

At the same time, New Delhi's regional rivalry with Beijing and the proximity of all three nations make the shared border the "world's only three-way nuclear junction," said The Associated Press. With China's support of Pakistan and the United States' ongoing backing of India, any India-Pakistani conflict that starts as a bilateral engagement is "unlikely to stay strictly between them, as their strategic partners are likely to get involved." Pakistan has "reinforced" its military forces ahead of an "imminent" action by India, said Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif to Reuters. But the country will only turn to its nuclear arsenal if "there is a direct threat to our existence."

Despite concerns of a wider regional conflict, China is thus far urging India and Pakistan to "exercise restraint," and "meet each other halfway" with "dialogue and consultation" for the sake of "regional peace and stability," said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun at Deutsche Welle.

The U.S., meanwhile, has met with Indian and Pakistani officials at "multiple levels" of government, and "encourages all parties to work together towards a responsible resolution," a state department spokesperson said to Reuters. India and Pakistan "work themselves into a frenzy every few years," said Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistan ambassador to the U.S., to Reuters. "This time, there is no U.S. interest in calming things down."

Rafi Schwartz, The Week US

Rafi Schwartz has worked as a politics writer at The Week since 2022, where he covers elections, Congress and the White House. He was previously a contributing writer with Mic focusing largely on politics, a senior writer with Splinter News, a staff writer for Fusion's news lab, and the managing editor of Heeb Magazine, a Jewish life and culture publication. Rafi's work has appeared in Rolling Stone, GOOD and The Forward, among others.