Tensions are rising ahead of Brazil’s upcoming presidential elections after a supporter of incumbent Jair Bolsonaro fatally stabbed a backer of leftist contender Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Following the killing, in the west-central state of Mato Grosso, Workers’ Party leader da Silva – widely known as Lula – warned of a “climate of hatred in the electoral process”.
President Bolsonaro “should know the cost of political violence better than anyone”, said The Guardian. The far-right leader was stabbed weeks before first winning power, in 2018, yet “continues to use aggressive rhetoric and spread hatred”. CNBC said that the upcoming election has “become Brazil’s most polarised race in decades”.
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Who are the election candidates?
Bolsonaro is seeking a second term in office – but latests polls suggest that he’s falling behind his main rival Lula, who was president between 2003 and 2010.
Lula’s “pitch to voters is that life was better when he was in charge”, said The Economist, but he is “no paragon”. His party was “mired in corruption” during his time in office.
In 2018, Lula was convicted of accepting bribes and spent 19 months in prison. He was unable to run in the last election as a result.
“It would be hard for the main candidates to be more polarised than those running this year,” said The New Statesman. The contest “is partly about left versus right”, but “is also an ideological battle between two starkly contrasting sides of Latin America’s most populous country” that are embodied by Lula and Bolsonaro.
When is the election taking place?
The first round of voting takes place on 2 October. If one of the candidates wins more than half of the vote, they automatically become president.
If not, the two candidates with the most votes will go head-to-head in the second round, on 30 October.
Every Brazilian citizen is legally obliged to vote, so “a second round can change the outcome of an election dramatically, as voters whose first-round candidates were eliminated switch their support to one of the final two”, said The New Statesman.
Who is expected to win?
Other candidates for the presidency, including former minister Ciro Gomes and senator Simone Tebet, are trailing far behind Bolsonaro and Lula.
But Bolsonaro, who is running under the banner of the far-right Liberal Party, has been “struggling”, said The Washington Post. The incumbent appears “unable to overcome the scars caused by his chaotic handling of the coronavirus and the multiple corruption investigations into his own administration”.
In a bid to narrow the gap, Bolsonaro has been trying to woo voters with “last-minute handouts” including fuel tax cuts and cash payments to poorer families.
Even so, the election “has been one of few changes” so far, said The Brazilian Report. Lula has maintained a significant lead, with latest polling by Ipec giving him 46% of the vote to Bolsonaro’s 31%.
“Not even” the “sizable crowds” that Bolsonaro “mustered” to celebrate Brazil’s 200 years of independence last week “appear to have been enough to give his re-election bid momentum”, the Sao Paulo-based news site added.
What’s at stake?
The election is “a pivotal moment for Brazil”, said The New Statesman, “and also an important global event”.
As well as key electoral issues including double-digit inflation and abortion rights, “the fate of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon” is also in “sharp focus”, said CNBC.
Deforestation is the “main reason” why the election “matters to the rest of the world”, said The Economist – “one candidate wants to save the Amazon, the other does not”. Lula “cracked down” on illegal logging and mining during his reign as president, while Bolsonaro has “slow-walked enforcement and let the chainsaws whirr”.
“If there were a prize for accelerating climate change, Mr Bolsonaro would be a contender,” the paper added.
Will Bolsonaro contest the result?
For months, Bolsonaro “has made worrisome comments about the security of the elections and his willingness to accept the results”, wrote The New York Times’ Brazil-based correspondent Jack Nicas Nicas.
The Economist predicted than a defeated Bolosonaro would “not go quietly”.
Donald Trump once referred to the Brazilian leader as his “number one ally”, said the paper, but “‘star pupil’ would be more apt”. Bolsonaro now “appears to be preparing his supporters to swallow a big lie” as he “signals” that the October election “could be rigged”. The potential outcome could be “a haphazard insurrection like the assault on Congress by a Trumpist mob on 6 January 2021, or worse”.
When Bolsonaro formally launched his re-election bid back in July, he told his supporters that “the army is on our side”.
That claim was “especially chilling”, said The Guardian, “given Brazil’s relatively recent history of military dictatorship”, which ended in 1985.
Whoever wins, “Brazil’s safeguards are weaker than America’s”, said The Economist – and neither Bolsonaro nor his supporters are “likely to go away”.
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