How fruitful was Zelenskyy’s European tour?

Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy paid a surprise visit to Britain this week, at the end of a whirlwind tour of Europe that also took in Rome, Berlin and Paris. Having been flown to Chequers in an RAF Chinook helicopter, Zelenskyy spent two hours in talks with Rishi Sunak.

After the meeting, the PM announced that Britain would be sending hundreds of newly developed attack drones – with a range of about 124 miles – to Kyiv. Sunak also pledged to lead efforts to secure more advanced Western fighter jets for Ukraine. Earlier, Britain had announced plans to send long-range Storm Shadow cruise missiles to help Ukraine defend itself from Russia.

Zelenskyy had embarked on his tour as the Ukrainian military prepared to launch its long-awaited counteroffensive against Russian forces. This week, Ukraine claimed that it had forced Russian troops back from some areas around the eastern city of Bakhmut, after months of fighting. In response to Zelenskyy’s lobbying of Western governments, Moscow pounded Kyiv with missiles, some of which targeted US-supplied Patriot anti-missile defence systems.

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What did the papers say?

Zelenskyy landed in Britain at a “critical moment for the war that is tearing his country apart”, said The Times. Limbering up for its counteroffensive, Kyiv is hoping to capitalise on low Russian morale, but needs more weapons in order to do so. Zelenskyy did well to win commitments from Britain, France and Germany to send further hardware to Kyiv – but if Ukraine is to win this war, it will need modern fighter jets such as F-16s, and pilots to fly them. Pledges by France, Britain and more to train Ukrainian pilots are therefore welcome; but this apparent softening of Western countries’ stance on the question of jets has come too late to help Kyiv this spring.

Retaking Russian-occupied territories won’t be easy, said The Daily Telegraph – especially if Moscow deploys the aerial firepower that it has so far failed to use to maximum effect, for fear of its planes being shot down. Ukrainian gains near Bakhmut are encouraging, said The Independent. Moscow views the city as a gateway through which its forces can advance to other eastern cities such as Slovyansk and Kramatorsk; but Ukraine now appears to have the upper hand in an attritional battle for Bakhmut that has been raging for the best part of a year.

Zelenskyy’s tour of Europe was extremely fruitful, said Dan Sabbagh in The Guardian – a point underlined by Russia’s retaliatory bombing of Kyiv hours after it ended. (Kyiv claims all missiles were intercepted.) But the question remains: has Kyiv been promised enough weapons to make a decisive breakthrough? Some, including Storm Shadow missiles, are already being used; but most won’t arrive until “later this year”, betraying an acceptance that the war will drag on.

A counteroffensive of “unexpected timing, nature or location” could still be devastating to Russia, said William Hague in The Times. Moscow wasted the chance to replenish its forces this winter, and instead expended vast resources around Bakhmut. Worse, its military sorely lacks leadership, leaving different factions competing for control. This “collective failure” is now producing “open dissent” within Russia’s war machine: witness Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s extraordinary rant about Russia’s military elite. Some have suggested that the “happy grandfather” he mentioned, who might turn out to be an “asshole”, could have been a reference to President Putin himself.

Last week’s Victory Day Parade in Moscow also raised speculation that confidence in the invasion is waning in Russia, said Jonathan Este on The Conversation. Usually a “big deal” for Putin, and a massive show of “imperial might”, the parade was much slimmed down; it drew a smaller crowd than usual; and featured only one tank.

What next?

There is no realistic chance of Ukraine’s counteroffensive producing a “decisive victory”, said Frank Ledwidge on Reaction. Nor is there currently “any appetite for settlement or ceasefire” in Kyiv. Instead, Ukraine’s focus is on increasing the supply of weapons from its allies, and agreeing a plan for it to join Nato once this war is over, to secure its long-term security. We’ll find out at the Nato summit in July whether the alliance’s members are open to that idea. But if Nato really wants to help Ukraine, it must “get serious” about replacing the current “piecemeal system” of weapons donations with more permanent commitments

Meanwhile, a diplomatic spat erupted between the US and South Africa last week after Washington alleged that, in December, arms and ammunition had been loaded onto a sanctioned Russian-flagged cargo vessel docked at a naval base near Cape Town. Pretoria, which describes itself as non-aligned in the war, says there is no evidence to support the claim; the US ambassador to South Africa, Reuben Brigety, had earlier enraged Pretoria by saying he’d “bet his life” on the veracity of the allegation. The Netherlands has agreed to co-lead the “international coalition” with Britain to help procure F-16 fighter jets for Ukraine to improve Kyiv’s “combat air capabilities”.