Maybe it is a coincidence, but maybe not: Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán is accusing Ukraine of a plot to sabotage his country’s energy infrastructure just weeks ahead of an April parliamentary election that threatens his grip on power.
Orbán is “facing the prospect of defeat by his political rival, Péter Magyar,” said Politico. To make up a polling gap of eight points, Hungary’s leader has accused Magyar of being both pro-Ukraine and pro-European Union. And on Feb. 25, he ordered troops to protect “key sites” such as oil pipelines against the possibility of a Ukrainian attack. Such measures are necessary for the “protection of critical energy infrastructure,” Orbán said. That proclamation drew an “exasperated response” from European leaders trying to present a united pro-Ukraine front as that country fights a Russian invasion in its fourth year. It is wrong if Hungary “uses its own fight for freedom to betray European sovereignty,” said German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul.
Hungary’s leader is “widely seen as the Kremlin’s strongest ally” in Europe, said NBC News. Orbán has cast his relationship with Moscow as “pragmatic” to ensure his country’s “access to reliable supplies of Russian oil and gas.” But critics see his “crackdowns” on media and nongovernmental organizations as borrowing from “Putin’s authoritarian playbook.”
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Orbán’s actions are “aiding and abetting Russia’s kinetic war against Ukraine,” said Mark Toth and Jonathan Sweet at The Hill. He has long hidden behind “economic excuses” for his refusal to oppose Russia, claiming that Europe “cannot afford” to back Ukraine in its war, even as he “champions Putin’s interests in the West.” The prime minister would “gladly continue to crassly trade cheap Russian oil for Ukrainian lives.” Now Orbán is trying to convince his country that Ukrainians are the real threat even though “Ukraine is not at war with Hungary.”
This spring’s elections are “shaping up to be the most serious challenge” to Orbán’s power in the last two decades, Timothy Ash said at The Kyiv Post. It is no coincidence that the Hungarian leader’s campaign has been “shaped around picking fights with the European Union and Ukraine.” He appears to believe he can “play Hungary as the victim here” with Ukraine as the culprit for higher fuel prices thanks to energy disruptions caused by the war. The polling showing Magyar in the lead, however, suggests “this Orbán strategy is not really working.”
What next?
Hungary is “holding up about $105 billion in European funding for Ukraine,” said The Washington Post. The loan was “intended to reinforce Ukraine’s military and plug its budget gap,” but Orbán “used veto powers” to block the package that he had already agreed to. Back at home there are "growing fears" that Orbán may “cancel next month's election,” said The Bulwark. Hungary's constitution outlaws elections during a state of emergency, which makes the “manufactured” alarms over Ukraine look like a “deeply sinister” attempt to hold onto power.
